Prediction Markets Trends of 2026 - What’s Happening So Far
In the midst of 2026, prediction markets are no longer an experiment on the fringes of the gambling industry. They are becoming colossal financial forces that are embedded in how individuals, companies, and institutions are predicting uncertainty.
Key highlights
- Prediction markets are rapidly scaling into major financial giants, growing 12,900% since 2024
- Respondents define them as "gambling" and "investing", used for both speculation and forecasting
- Trading hit a record $6.5B in 2026, with projections to grow 5× this year, but trust remains an issue
- Regulation is top of mind for prediction markets as 7+ states scramble to enact restrictions
2024 - 2025 From breakthrough to explosive growth
Prediction markets were invented in 1988 at the University of Iowa as an academic model to forecast U.S. presidential elections. However, the model first came into the spotlight in the fall of 2024, when trading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket facilitated over $4.5 billion in contracts on the U.S. presidential election in October 2024(1).Monthly national trade volume on prediction market platforms has grown from under $100 million in early 2024 to more than $13 billion in November 2025, bringing the year's total to over $50 billion. Over the period, monthly transactions grew from 240,000 to over 43 million, and monthly active users from 4,000 to 612,000.
In 2025, sports events were the largest category, accounting for roughly 85% (over $14 billion) of Kalshi's trading volume and 39% (over $8 billion) of Polymarket's, respectively, followed by politics and elections, crypto, economics and finance, culture and entertainment, and tech and science.
2026: What’s happening so far
So far, the momentum for prediction markets continues at a neck-breaking pace in 2026. While the first week of January 2026 produced trading volumes of $5.4 billion, the first week of April 2026 set an all-time record of $6.5 billion. It is expected that market volume will increase fivefold in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching $25 billion in weekly trading volume across all platforms and categories(3).True to their origins as an elections forecasting tool, prediction markets are already referred to by many as the new ‘truth machines,’ and are considered among the most accurate forecasting systems available. With Brier probability scores nearing 0.09, they are far more accurate than polls, experts, and even weather forecasting models, and are becoming a standard forecasting tool used by experts in politics, business, finance, and news channels.Mainstream financial institutions are embracing prediction market platforms, with Kalshi’s market valuation doubling, leaping from $11 billion in late 2025 to $22 billion based on a $1 billion fundraising round closed in March of this year(3). Polymarket’s current valuation is $15 billion, up from $9 billion in late 2025(4).However, despite the monumental growth and widespread adoption by individuals and companies in the public and private sectors, many questions remain about regulation, compliance, trust, insider trading, user safety, and more.Research methodology
The report draws on various sources, including a study of 11,000 participants who were interviewed on topics related to prediction markets. In addition, it includes in-depth analyses of external sources through Casino.org’s vast network of journalists and sources, as well as extensive data on the engagement patterns of the site’s nearly 2 million monthly visitors across the U.S.Site visitor sentiment and engagement
The report uses data and trend analysis of user behavior on the site, measuring clicks, time spent on pages, comments, and other engagement indicators across thousands of keywords, entities, and topics related to prediction markets. All these are combined to indicate user sentiment towards prediction markets.Prediction Market Pulse: A national study
In April 2026, Casino.org’s research team commissioned an extensive study via Prolific, a third-party online research platform. Interviewing 11,000 participants across 55,000 data points, the study was designed to analyze the general public’s participation, sentiment, and engagement with prediction markets in the U.S.Demographics
Demographics were carefully segmented across age, gender, location, education level, and political affiliation. Participants were aged between 18 and 79. Of the respondent base, the average age was 33, 59% were male, 42% were left-leaning, and the majority, 37%, held a bachelor's degree or higher.All respondents were based in the U.S., and the location analysis was isolated to per capita levels to avoid bias toward large, specific metropolitan areas.Survey questions
The survey questions varied across topics and participants, aiming to produce both quantitative and qualitative data. Participants were asked to rate their trust in prediction markets, as well as report the frequency with which they had previously participated in the subject. Engagement was also measured, ranging from whether participants interacted directly with operators to how it played a role in broader subjects like elections and sports.The survey also took in open-ended responses, allowing participants to describe in their own words how prediction markets shape society. All in all, the data provide a solid foundation for how prediction markets are publicly received.Why prediction markets are currently growing
Monthly transaction volume across prediction market platforms grew from $1.2 billion in early 2025 to $20 billion in January 2026, with more than 800,000 unique wallet users trading contracts each month(5). Several factors are contributing to this exponential growth, outlined below.
The perception of gambling
While prediction markets initially debuted as an election forecasting mechanism, they evolved to become a gambling equivalent, which is a main contributing factor to their growth.
Annual trading on sports event contracts is expected to reach $100 billion, with long-term forecasts of sports markets trading at $1.1 trillion (6), making this category the main growth engine of the sector(6).
When asked if they viewed prediction markets as gambling, 82% of survey respondents agreed. In addition, the majority of respondents, 57%, have indicated they trade on sports markets the most, followed by 15% and 8%, trading on crypto and entertainment, respectively. (Casino.org, 2026). Following the ethos of prediction markets being a form of gambling, many of the country’s largest traditional sports betting operators, such as FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics, have launched prediction market offerings alongside their proprietary sports betting platforms.
Mainstream trust
Despite questions about regulation and legality, prediction markets are gaining legitimacy and trust as they are adopted and embraced by mainstream organizations across sectors.
Various news outlets have formed data-integration alliances with prediction market platforms. Kalshi has partnered with CNBC, CNN, and Google Finance, while Polymarket has partnered with Yahoo Finance.
Major sports teams and leagues have also formed partnerships with prediction market platforms. For example, Major League Baseball (MLB) has partnered with Polymarket, while the National Hockey League (NHL) formed alliances with both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Diverse advertising channels
Prediction markets are being pushed through many more distribution channels, featured frequently across mainstream digital and real-life outlets that appeal to their respective customer bases.
When asked in which channels prediction markets are perceived to be advertised most aggressively, 62% of respondents said social media, followed by 25% in sports games. Influencer and brand ambassador advertising came third at 8%. (Casino.org, 2026)
Key trends shaping the prediction market industry
The main forces driving adoption
Prediction markets are becoming more mainstream among users who use platforms to speculate on events across a wide array of topics. While the majority of respondents in the survey trade contracts on sports and entertainment (57% and 9%, respectively), trades on crypto and finance capture 15%, economy 4%, and tech 3%. (Casino.org, 2026)A mix of gambling, investing, and entertainment
61% of Americans view prediction markets as closer to gambling, compared to a smaller, yet significant, group of 8% who view them as investing. 18% see it as a mixture of both, and 12% see it as neither(7). As prediction markets are being embraced by mainstream financial companies and media channels, more people are shifting their perception of them from gambling to investment tools. However, unlike Kalshi, where over 85% of trading volume in 2025 came from sports contracts, Polymarket data showed a more diversified market, with sports contracts accounting for only 39% of its trading volume, followed by politics (34%) and crypto/finance (18%)(2). We cover this range and diversity in more detail on our Polymarket review.Event-driven participation and cultural moments
Be it sports bettors, investors, or people looking to be entertained, prediction markets have something for everyone, hence their surge in popularity across cultures, demographics, and topics of interest.Still, the event-driven, peer-trading nature brings high volumes and user participation during key moments like the Oscars or large sporting events. For example, Kalshi reported that over $1 billion was traded on the platform for Super Bowl 2026, up 2,700% year-over-year(8). In addition to engagement of traders who aren’t closely aligned with American Football and see sports as another trading commodity, this also highlights sports fans’ desire to have interactive, gamified touchpoints across in-game events, player achievements, team awards, halftime shows, ceremonies, and other related cultural events.Rising concerns around trust and market integrity
Despite their increased popularity, there are growing concerns that prediction markets have ushered in a metaphorical golden era of insider trading(9). Additional concerns have been raised over the content itself - whether users should be allowed to bet on controversial world events, deaths, etc.The trust-usage paradox
As shown above, only 7% of 11,811 survey respondents trust prediction market platforms. However, when asking the same pool of respondents whether they ever participated in prediction markets, nearly 42% (4,960 people) said they have participated on platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, FanDuel Predict, etc.The shift from niche platforms to cultural relevance
Prediction markets are increasingly gaining legitimacy and reflecting how the public deals with uncertain world events.Looking at internal research data on sentiment towards prediction markets over the past 12 months, in March 2025, 83% of respondents were neutral about their position on prediction markets. 9% of respondents had a negative sentiment towards these markets, and 8% felt positive about prediction markets. In March 2026, the proportion of respondents with positive sentiment towards prediction markets increased to 20%.User behavior: Who's really participating
The close resemblance of prediction markets to sports betting, alongside the prominence of sports event contracts, may lead one to assume a resemblance to sportsbook demographics by age, gender, and user interests. However, the prediction market user base is very different and a lot more diverse.Demographics and participation trends
Although prediction markets started by targeting mostly younger male, tech-savvy day traders and sports bettors, this isn’t just a boys’ club anymore.Women now make up 26% of Kalshi’s user base, up from 13% less than a year ago. While an estimated 65% of prediction market trading volume on big platforms comes from sports-related contracts, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are trying to diversify further by paying influencers in other areas, hosting events, and promoting contracts on pop culture, politics, and the economy(11).Market landscape: Platforms, users, and growth
Annual trading volumes of prediction markets climbed from $15.8 billion in 2024 to $63.5 billion in 2025. The marketplace to date is considered a near-duopoly with very few platforms capturing the majority of trader liquidity(12).Overview of leading platforms
Looking at average daily trading volume over the 90-day period ending April 30, 2026, Kalshi was leading in trading volume, with a market share of 43%, followed by Polymarket with 38%, with the remaining 19% divided between various smaller platforms.(13).Evolving brand sentiment
When looking at brand sentiment, the larger platforms aren’t enjoying an overwhelmingly positive view.Internal data shows that in March 2026, Kalshi was mentioned in negative and positive connotations over 2,000 and 900 times, respectively. However, rival platform Polymarket enjoyed significantly better perception during the same period, with negative and positive mentions totaling 8,320 and 7,775, respectively. While Kalshi had 45% positive reviews out of all mentions, Polymarket had more than double the approval ratings, with 93% of all mentions being positive. We have also tested the platforms ourselves - our Kalshi review explores what’s great and what could be improved to meet expectations enjoyed on other platforms.Participation beyond personal interest
While prediction markets are often compared to sports betting, 28% of survey respondents see them as an investment vehicle. Furthermore, even among the 82% of respondents who see prediction markets as a form of gambling, 45% said they had purchased contracts in markets they had no interest in. Thus, the data show that prediction markets are increasingly seen as an investment tool detached from personal interests and emotional attachments. (Casino.org, 2026)Sports contracts as investment vehicles
When asked about events traded with no personal interest, 28% of respondents replied they would trade on sports events, followed by 14% and 12% on crypto and entertainment events - a market that has seen explosive growth in the last year, respectively. Even though most users see prediction markets as a form of gambling, and the majority of contracts are traded on sports events, it is an opportunity to turn a profit, rather than a way for sports fans to back their teams, as is often the case in casual sports betting. (Casino.org, 2026)Still, when asked specifically about prediction markets as an investment tool, 60.7% of participants said they are likely to invest in traditional financial markets (day trading, index funds, etc.), compared with 39.3% who said they would see in their participation in prediction markets a form of investment. Similar to traditional sports betting, prediction markets offer engagement, entertainment, and gamification, allowing them to complement traditional investment vehicles rather than being an alternative. (Casino.org, 2026)Sports as a Gateway to Prediction Markets
It is clear that sports bettors and sports fans are a driving force and the majority of users of prediction market platforms. The Wall Street Journal reported that 65% of the estimated trading volume on the big platforms (Kalshi and Polymarket) is on sports-event contracts, a market we cover in detail here. Looking at user activity, over 57% of survey participants said they trade most on sports events.Which Sports Leagues are Embracing Prediction Markets
Many major leagues and teams in the U.S. were quick to embrace prediction markets and the potential profits they bring in sponsorship money and exposure. In addition to the MLB, Major League Soccer (MLS), and the NHL, which formed direct partnerships with prediction markets platforms, the National Basketball Association (NBA) is currently in active discussions with Kalshi and Polymarket(14).The NFL is Out, for Now
Unlike other major sports leagues, the National Football League (NFL) has been reluctant to partner with or even approve of prediction markets. Similar to the case with traditional sports betting, the NFL has historically shown fierce opposition to sports betting and was cautious about accepting it after the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) ruling in 2018, which enabled legal sports betting outside of Nevada. When asked which major sports league people are most likely to bet on other than their own, over 51% said they would bet on the NFL, indicating that it is the largest sports league seen as an emotionally detached investment category. (Casino.org, 2026)Despite being the league driving the largest engagement among prediction market users, for now, the NFL is not showing any signs of participating in the prediction markets frenzy, banning prediction market ads on the national broadcast of Super Bowl 2026.iGaming expert and writer for Casino.org, who has been covering technology advancements in the gaming sector for over 20 years, says:"It will be interesting to see what the future will hold. Most believe that league officials are awaiting more legal and regulatory clarity before deciding on their next move."
Loyalty vs Profit: When Fans Bet Against Their Teams
However, unlike traditional sports betting, where bettors are divided between strategic bettors wagering for profit and those placing bets to back their team, prediction markets attract a larger share of traders who buy sports contracts as part of their strategic wagering, regardless of their team affiliation.Major league sports are among the main areas that attract prediction market users who do not have a personal interest or emotional stake in the topics they wager on. Nearly 5 out of 10 survey respondents said they are likely to bet on an NFL team other than their own. 3 out of 10 would bet on another NBA team, and 1 out of 10 on another MLB team. (Casino.org, 2026)How Prediction Markets are changing the game-time experience
Traditional sportsbooks have been using live betting to add a dimension of excitement and engagement to the gameday experience. However, prediction markets are taking real-time fan engagement to new heights, with millions of users, including sports fans, tuning in to watch matches live.Concerns over athlete safety and integrity
There is concern that with billions of dollars at stake and increased exposure to the games, prediction market platforms lack sufficient guardrails to protect college and professional athletes from corruption and abuse.In an interview for the March Madness opening with CBS Mornings, National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) President, Charlie Baker, warned that prediction markets have a lot more to do to protect college athletes, and that the league has sent the platform a letter urging action(16). He adds:First of all, you can start doing it [prediction markets] at the age of 18, whereas almost in every state you can’t gamble legally until you are 21. That’s problem number one; problem number two is that they don’t collect the kind of data you are required to collect as a sportsbook,’ Baker said. ‘We sent them a long letter outlining all of our concerns,
Regulation and policy: How prediction markets are affecting state sovereignty
Federal outlook and legal uncertainty
As traditional gambling is regulated by each state, each betting operator must adhere to state licensing policies and enforce geographic restrictions, limiting use to within state borders. Prediction markets, however, are currently supervised at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Industry bodies
The American Gaming Association (AGA), one of the country’s largest regulated-gambling advocacy groups, sided with local states and Native American tribes.“It’s [sports betting] a proven framework that protects players and the public while delivering billions in community benefits. Prediction markets offering sports event contracts threaten this regulated model. These operators try to pretend they’re not enabling sports wagering – seeking to bypass the industry’s effective regulatory framework – but they’re not fooling anyone.” AGA, Official Statement
State-level sentiment and policy direction
Over ten U.S. states have been looking to exercise their sovereignty through proposed legislation. While most proposed measures are restrictive, ranging from age limits and advertising restrictions to complete bans, a handful of states have proposed licensing and taxation measures to regulate prediction markets.States proposing restrictive measures
Hawaii
Illinois
Connecticut
California
States looking to regulate prediction markets
New York
Iowa
Kentucky
Age restrictions, exemptions, and defining what should be off-limits
Regarding age restrictions, the majority (53.5%) believe prediction markets should be allowed only from age 21, while 33.5% think they should be allowed from age 18. Less than 2% of respondents believe the minimum age requirement should be under 18. (Casino.org, 2026)Insider trading and market manipulation
Beyond age restrictions, one of the main concerns regarding prediction markets has been insider trading and the use of privileged information to gain wealth.Nearly 19% of survey respondents believe sports contracts will be most influenced by insider trading, while crypto, currency, and domestic politics follow with 17%, 16.5%, and 14.4%, respectively. Indeed, because of their anonymous and on-chain nature, decentralised crypto prediction markets are especially prone to the dangers of insider trading. Accordingly, legislation has already been proposed to limit the use of this information on both the federal and state levels. (Casino.org, 2026)State measures against insider trading
Several U.S. states, including New York, Illinois, California, and Maryland, have recently issued executive orders banning public sector employees and service personnel from using prediction market platforms. The move comes amid concerns that government officials and designated personnel can use insider information to profit from markets covering sensitive and classified events.The concerns were highlighted in the case of a U.S. Special Forces soldier, who is now being prosecuted for allegedly making more than $400,000 on Polymarket using classified information about a U.S. military operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolas Maduro.“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law.(19)Forecast - Where prediction markets are heading
Pathways to mainstream adoption
Prediction markets are transitioning from niche platforms to broader public tools for prediction and decision-making at neck-breaking speeds. Much of this growth is fueled by aggressive, targeted advertising.
When asked where people recall seeing prediction market advertising, 85.6%, 57.4%, and 51.4% said they saw it on social media, at sports games, and through influencers and brand ambassadors, respectively. (Casino.org, 2026)
These grassroots strategies will become even more effective as trust and engagement increase, driven by industry maturation through regulation.
Likewise, referral programs also serve as a tool to fuel growth. Recently, Polymarket announced a program that would allow users to earn 30% in referral fees. This type of award-based system is sure to keep demand high(20).
As mentioned above, both of the market’s largest companies are rumored to be considering an Initial Public Offering (IPO), with Kalshi recently securing a $1 billion investment(21).
From spectatorship to participation
Prediction markets enable people to become more than just spectators of political, business, sports, and pop culture events. By allowing members of the public to buy a stake in an event based on their own beliefs, options, and knowledge, platforms are turning spectators into participants, with outcomes having a direct impact on their lives. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow every user to become an expert and trade on the outcomes of topics ranging from the Middle East conflict to the Academy Awards and the Super Bowl, making decisions and reacting in real-time as the narrative unfolds. This made trading far more than an investment vehicle. It is now a gamified, second-screen behavior in which price movements reflect crowd sentiment and vice versa, just as social media does. Prediction markets are becoming a part of how major events and key moments are consumed, experienced, influenced, and even ‘played’ by audiences(22).
The role of regulation in shaping growth
Be it at the state or federal levels, regulation remains one of the most significant and, for now, uncertain factors in the future of regulated markets. Similar to the tidal wave of sports betting regulation that swept the country following the PASPA annulment in 2018, the regulation clarity of prediction markets will foster trust, innovation, and measures to promote safe and responsible use.However, too many restrictive policies will limit accessibility and growth, driving users to seek unregulated, potentially harmful alternatives. So the key to success would be striking the right balance that ensures user safety and commercial viability.
Conclusion
Prediction markets may be growing at an imaginary pace, but their future still hangs in the balance on some very fundamental questions. As they sit somewhere between gambling, investing, forecasting, and entertainment, their lack of a clear identity is at the heart of the industry’s biggest challenges, from regulation to compliance, trust, insider manipulation, and user protection.Before prediction markets can mature and transition from being an explosive-growth phenomenon to a stable and sustainable industry, governments, regulators, companies, traders, and all other stakeholders must first answer a simple but critical question: What exactly are prediction markets? Defining one answer that is broadly agreed on will set the foundation for the future of prediction markets, shaping how they are governed, how they are viewed by society and institutions, how users engage with them, and how far they can truly go.Methodology
The methodology in this article draws on expert opinion, public records, internal research, 55,000+ data points, and user surveys of over 11,000 participants to highlight key trends in prediction markets and connect them to regulation and user sentiment. Findings are further analyzed and reinforced by Casino.org’s network of analysts, regulators, journalists, and industry experts, who gather conclusions on the industry’s growth trajectory, drivers, and how it affects and shapes the marketplace.Works Cited
Works Consulted
Chris has been working in iGaming for 15 years, and is now bringing his experience and expertise to Casino.org's exhaustive coverage of real money casinos, sweepstakes, and prediction markets within the US.
Alexander Korsager has been immersed in online casinos and iGaming for over 10 years, making him a dynamic Chief Gaming Officer at Casino.org. He uses his vast knowledge of the industry to ensure the delivery of exceptional content to help players across key global markets. Alexander checks every real money casino on our shortlist offers the high-quality experience players deserve.
