Genius Sports Stock a Buy After ‘Indiscriminate’ Selling, Says Analyst
Posted on: November 20, 2025, 10:25h.
Last updated on: November 20, 2025, 11:59h.
- Stock has been drubbed on sportsbook hold, prediction markets concerns
- Analysts say Genius is being treated “incorrectly”
- Upcoming investor day could be a catalyst for the shares
Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) stock may be a prime example of a baby being thrown out with the bathwater. As shares of its sportsbook clients have tumbled in recent weeks, so have those of the data provider, but one analyst argues the punishment is too harsh.
Weak structural hold commentary and data, as well as prediction markets concerns, have plagued stocks such as DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT), inducing selling pressure on Genius with shares of the data provider, sending the stock lower by 22.59% over the past month. B. Riley analyst Josh Nichols calls the selling “indiscriminate,” and notes that Genius could be primed for a rebound.
The market is incorrectly treating GENI as a transaction-based sportsbook proxy when the business is fundamentally a data and technology platform provider with contracted recurring revenue, minimal betting outcome exposure, and exclusive content relationships locked through 2029/2030,” observes the analyst.
He rates Genius stock a “buy” with a $14 price target, which implies upside of more than 55% from current levels.
Prediction Markets Could Be Catalysts for Genius Sports Stock
It’s widely documented that the recent declines experienced by sports betting equities and data providers like Genius coincided with reports of soaring volume on prediction markets, such as Kalshi.
While that’s a clear sign investors are worried providers of event contracts will pilfer market share from traditional sportsbooks, Nichols reiterated the view that the still-young prediction markets category could prove to be more of an opportunity than a headwind for companies like Genius.
“As the category matures, the need for official league data, marks and logos, and integrity solutions will intensify, which we believe renders GENI with its exclusive rights portfolio in an advantageous position,” adds the analyst. “We believe this is particularly true for in-game betting and parlays, which account for a growing percentage of betting volume in the U.S. and are not handled well by prediction markets.”
There’s been consistent talk that the parlay offerings on platforms like Kalshi are weak compared to DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s an area where Genius could make headway with prediction markets because the company already provides the data needed to power multileg wagers, including popular same-game fare.
Investor Day Could Lift Genius Sports Stock
Nichols points out that Genius’s upcoming investor day, scheduled for December 3, could be an imminent catalyst for the downtrodden stock.
We are optimistic heading into the 12/3 analyst day in New York City, expecting management to articulate a multi-year roadmap demonstrating how the company reaches $1 billion+ annual revenue by 2027/2028 with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins progressing toward management’s 30%+ target, reestablishing GENI’s differentiation as a lower-volatility platform technology company with a significant competitive moat,” says the analyst.
He adds his 2026 revenue forecast of $758 million could prove conservative when accounting for the catalysts of European league rights deals, Betvision growth, improvements in Genius’s media unit, and ongoing bettor enthusiasm for same-game parlays.
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