NFL Best Against The Spread Records: Dolphins, Lions, Falcons Undefeated for Bettors
Posted on: September 28, 2022, 02:40h.
Last updated on: September 30, 2022, 04:24h.
The Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons, and Miami Dolphins boast the best betting record in the NFL this season against the point spread, all winning at a 3-0 ATS clip.
The Dolphins (3-0) are one of the two undefeated teams — along with the Philadelphia Eagles — after the first three weeks of the season. The Lions and Falcons are both 1-2 this season. But both of their losses were close games.
NFL Best ATS Betting Records
- Miami Dolphins 3-0
- Detroit Lions 3-0
- Atlanta Falcons 3-0
- Houston Texans 2-0-1
*** Thru Week 3
The preseason was reduced from four to three to accommodate a 17th regular-season game. As a result, teams are still works-in-progress this September. Underdogs continue to thrive with a 29-19-1 ATS record in the season’s first three weeks.
If you’re betting NFL point totals, the under has been successful 62.5% of the time through Week 3. The points under has a 30-18 record this season.
With so many underdogs winning, it’s s been a competitive season, with 18 games decided by three points or less.
Miami Dolphins (3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU)
The Dolphins are the biggest surprise through the season’s first three weeks. Rookie head coach Mike McDaniel quickly wiped out any doubts that the offensive Wunderkind would be overwhelmed during his first head coaching job.
In the season opener, the Dolphins easily covered as a three-point favorite against the New England Patriots in a 20-7 win.
In Week 2, the Dolphins were +3.5 road dogs against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens blew a 21-point lead, and the Dolphins pulled off a remarkable comeback to win 42-28.
Last week, the Dolphins were a +4 home dog against the Buffalo Bills. Despite a Bills Mafia takeover of South Beach last weekend and the fact that the Bills are the Super Bowl favorites, the Dolphins figured out a way to beat the gassed Bills. They improved to 3-0 on the season and 3-0 against the spread.
In the upcoming Week 4, the Dolphins are challenged with a short week of preparation before flying to Cincinnati to play Joe Burrow and the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. The Dolphins have a quick turnaround after an exhausting victory in the scorching heat against the Bills.
The Dolphins flew under the radar at the start of the season, but expect fairweather fans and bettors to jump on the bandwagon. They opened as +3.5 road dog, and the bookies pegged them as an underdog for a third consecutive week. The early money is on the Bengals, and oddsmakers moved the line to the Bengals at -4.
Detroit Lions (3-0 ATS, 1-2 SU)
The Lions continue their run as a premier betting team. They went 11-6 against the point spread last season and had the fourth-best ATS record in the league. Dating back to 2021, the Lions are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games.
The Lions lost two close games this season, including a 38-35 loss against the Eagles in Week 1, and a 28-24 loss against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. The Eagles were a six-point favorite in Week 1, and the Vikings were favorites by -6.5 last Sunday.
The Lions are a much-improved team under head coach Dan Campbell but continue to play close games. They haven’t won much in the last few seasons and lack the experience to properly close out a win. In Week 3, they blew a lead and allowed the Vikings to edge them out with a late touchdown. Despite the loss, the Lions still covered as a +6.5 dog.
The Lions were installed as a betting favorite against the Washington Commanders in Week 2, which marked the first time they weren’t an underdog in an NFL-record 24 games. They beat the Commanders 37-24 for their first and only win of the season so far.
The Lions are again a favorite in Week 4 when they host the Seattle Seahawks (1-2). At sports books in Las Vegas, the Lions are -4 favorites. At DraftKings and other offshore books, the Lions are -4.5.
Atlanta Falcons (3-0 ATS, 1-2 SU)
Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons went 7-10 last season, including a 6-10-1 ATS record. The public thinks they’re a terrible team, but they keep each game close during Smith’s second season as head coach. They lost by an average of 2.5 points in their two losses this season yet continue to exceed market expectations with a 3-0 ATS record.
The Falcons were +5.5 home dogs in Week 1 against the New Orleans Saints. and blew a double-digit lead in the second half to lose by one point. In Week 2, the Falcons headed to Hollywood to play the Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams. They were +10 road dogs and lost 31-27. The Rams dominated them in the first half, but the Falcons rallied in the fourth quarter to secure a backdoor cover in garbage time.
With the Seattle Seahawks scheduled for Week 3, the Falcons stayed on the West Coast after their trip to L.A. and didn’t fly home to Atlanta after the Rams game. The move paid off when the well-rested Falcons defeated the Seahawks, even though they were +2 road dogs.
After their West Coast sojourn, the Falcons return to Atlanta to host the Cleveland Browns in Week 4. The Browns opened -3, and for a fourth straight game this season, the Falcons are an underdog.
The early money is backing the Falcons as a home dog. The line recently moved, and the Browns are only a -1.5 favorite.
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