Kalshi Had Worse Pricing Than DraftKings, FanDuel in NFL Week One
Posted on: September 8, 2025, 11:15h.
Last updated on: September 8, 2025, 11:37h.
- Derivatives exchange had worse pricing than sportsbook rivals in first NFL week
- Analyst says that was apparent across pregame money line bets and totals
- Kalshi parlay pricing could be inferior, too
One reason prediction markets could become a thorn in the side of sportsbooks is the belief among bettors that companies like Kalshi offer better pricing on NFL wagers than operators such as DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and FanDuel. In week one of the NFL season, that was more perception than reality.
Born out of the fact that derivatives exchange charge transaction fees, not a vig, there’s a belief that yes/no event contracts offer the average bettor improved pricing over what they get at standard sportsbooks, but that wasn’t the case on Kalshi during the first week of the 2025 NFL campaign, according to Citizens Equity Research Analyst Jordan Bender.
Bender tracked pricing on pregame money lines and totals on Friday, September 5, and again on Sunday, comparing Kalshi to DraftKings and FanDuel. He noted that when accounting for Kalshi’s transaction fee, the exchange had worse pricing on those bets than its sportsbook competitors.
Pricing on Kalshi for the money line and over/under was 10% and 25% more expensive compared to DraftKings for the NFL slate on Friday and 16% and 23% more expensive compared to FanDuel, respectively,” observes Bender. “We ran pricing before kickoff on Sunday; pricing tightened between the traditional sportsbooks and Kalshi, yet the average of the money line was still 7% more expensive compared to FanDuel/DraftKings, with over/under 10% more expensive.”
Bender’s findings emerged about two weeks after Kalshi self-certified to offer yes/no contracts on NFL player propositions, sides, and totals.
Kalshi Parlays Could Be Inferior, Too
Last week was brisk in terms of prediction markets news flow, with one of the biggest headlines pertaining to a Kalshi regulatory filing indicating the exchange will offer multilegged event contracts that are essentially its answer to football parlays.
That took the sports betting industry by storm because parlays are significant profit and revenue drivers for companies such as DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT). For traditional gaming companies, the good news could be that prediction markets’ parlay pricing could also leave plenty to be desired.
“We expect pricing to be even more inferior compared to DraftKings and FanDuel with the collateral needed by the market makers to trade the product,” adds Bender.
Bender also highlighted Kalshi’s cash-out feature as another potential source of disappointment for recreational bettors. In short, the exchange is believed to offer improved cash out functionality relative to old guard sportsbook operators — something of the utmost importance to parlay bettors — but Bender points out that’s more myth than reality.
Competitive Threat May Be Overstated
With Crypto.com, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood offering football event contracts, and amid the specter of some or all of those expanding their football menus, there’s a growing sense that prediction markets are overtly signaling willingness to compete with sportsbooks.
In a sentiment shared by other analysts. Bender says that, at least for now, the competitive threat posed by prediction markets to sportsbook operators may be more hyperbole than reality.
“Together with inferior pre-game pricing, UI/UX, and cashout, we do not view betting exchanges as a competitive threat to profitability for existing operators (DKNG, FLUT, MGM Resorts Caesars Entertainment, PENN Entertainment, Rush Street Interactive) in the legal sports betting states and should not expect to see reactionary promos/marketing as a result,” he concludes.
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