Third Term for President Donald Trump? Odds Suggest Decent Chance

Posted on: April 1, 2025, 02:02h. 

Last updated on: April 1, 2025, 03:41h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.
  • President Donald Trump is interested in a third term
  • The US Constitution limits presidents to two elected terms
  • Trump, along with his eldest son and daughter, are betting favorites for the 2028 election

President Donald Trump isn’t ruling out a third term in the White House despite the Twenty-Second Amendment of the United States Constitution stating that “no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice.”

Donald Trump odds third term
Donald Trump rallies his supporters in National Harbor, Md., during a campaign rally on Feb. 24, 2024. Trump says he would be interested in serving a third four-year term as president should he be allowed. (Image: Shutterstock)

Trump’s second term is to expire in January 2029. The billionaire former casino owner, however, says he’s considering how he might serve a third term.

I’m not joking,” Trump said on Sunday from his Mar-a-Lago residence.

Congress approved Amendment XXII on March 21, 1947. The amendment limits the number of times a person can be elected commander-in-chief to two.

Trump, not exactly known to be a follower of rules, even those in the United States’ sacred framework, has repeatedly teased his interest in serving a third term. Whether that would come by having his Republican Party, which controls Congress, pass a constitutional amendment to allow a third term, or if he and Vice President JD Vance, or one of his children, might orchestrate a scheme where they run and win the presidency and then hand over the reins, remains unknown.

Trump’s interest in a third term, however, is known, and oddsmakers where wagers on political elections and events are allowed are now taking bets on whether Trump will secure a third administration.

Trump Odds 4/1

This week, British bookmaker William Hill became the first sportsbook to open lines on Trump gaining a third term. While Vance is the 2028 election betting front-runner at 5/2, Trump is next at 4/1.

Trump’s odds imply a likelihood of 20%, a staggeringly high percentage considering he’s constitutionally prohibited from running at this juncture. For an amendment to alter the Constitution, a two-thirds majority vote in the US House of Representatives and Senate is needed. The odds of such support being realized are seemingly unthinkable, as almost all Democrats would presumably vote against such a change.

William Hill also has odds on when Trump will cease to be president. 2029 or later is the favorite at 1/4, or implied odds of 80%. Trump leaving the Oval Office this year is 14/1, next year is 10/1, 2027 is 9/1, and 2028 is 6/1.

Other 2028 presidential election favorites include Donald Trump Jr. (9/1), Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro (9/1), Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom (10/1), and Ivanka Trump (12/1).

Amendment Filed 

Trump’s wish for a third term has the support of Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tennessee). In January, Ogles introduced a House Joint Resolution seeking to “allow a president to be elected for up to but no more than three terms.” House Joint Resolution 29 remains with the House Judiciary Committee.

On prediction market wagering exchange Kalshi, bettors give just a 13% chance of Trump being allowed to run for a third term. The market requires that the Twenty-Second Amendment be repealed or amended to allow a third term by Jan. 1, 2029.

The contract has gained $62,551 in bets as of April 1, 2025. The market opened last Nov. 9.