NFL Betting: Brutal Start for the Books Going Into Week 3
Posted on: September 19, 2025, 08:50h.
Last updated on: September 19, 2025, 09:05h.
- Cowboys versus Bears most bet game going into Week 3
- Bills handle the Dolphins, but don’t cover the spread
- Burrow, Purdy, Daniels out with injuries
Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction for more than 20 years, and an industry consultant, has seen a few things, with the “brutal start” for the sportsbooks in NFL betting heading into Week 3 right up there.
Favourites Dominating
With favourites straight up 25-8 so far, parlays and teasers are the talk of the day, he says.
“Totals and props may do okay with the under coming in at about 50%, but the rate of favourite outright wins leaves huge negative in total GGR,” he says.
Last night’s Buffalo Bills win over the Miami Dolphins – 31-21 – was right on script, although the Bills didn’t cover (-12.5 at kickoff).
Burrow Surgery Today
“If there’s not a few upsets to negate that it certainly could be another big win for the public,” Gray says. “Parlays right now are sitting about -8% on sides, normally that should be about 15%. It’s a very tough start to the season for the house. Straight bets at 54.5% right now for favs is close to the norm and there is some hold there, but again moneyline and teaser combos are just smashing it for the regular bettor with that 76% rate of fav outright wins.”
Today’s news NFL headlines impacting betting are led by the news that Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow underwent surgery today on his toe, the surgery went well, and there’s no timeline on his return. Burrow of course was an MVP betting favourite going into the season, up there with the Bills’ QB Josh Allen and Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson.
Purdy Injury Update
San Francisco 49ers’ QB Brock Purdy, dealing with shoulder and toe issues, is “highly unlikely” to start Sunday against the Cardinals. And Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will miss Sunday’s game against the Raiders with a knee injury.
According to Adrian Horton, Senior Director, North American Sports Trading, ESPN BET, Cowboys versus Bears is the most bet game on the schedule for Sunday.
“Action has flipped the line from Bears –1.5 to Cowboys –1.5 on the road as of Friday, with two thirds of tickets and over 75% of handle coming in on Dallas,” he said.
Lions-Ravens Total Up To 52.5
“Packers-Browns is also one of our most bets games of the weekend, though in even more lopsided fashion as nearly 90% of bets and handle have come in on Green Bay at –7.5. In a playoff rematch, the Eagles are getting nearly 60% of spread tickets and handle to keep the line at –3.5 when they host the Rams on Sunday.”
The Lions – Ravens total (now 54.5) is also up another point from midweek, and up two since opening at 52.5. The Vikings are back in to –2.5 at home against the Colts. Minnesota opened –3.5, were down to –2.5 on Tuesday, and back to –3.5 on Wednesday. The total in Steelers-Pats is up a point from open and is now 44.5.
Chiefs Look for First Win
Over at BetMGM, most bet games (tickets) are the Packers versus Browns, Cowboys versus Bears, Rams versus Eagles, Chiefs versus Giants and Lions versus Ravens.
“Popular action in Week 3 is on the Chiefs seeking their first win, the Cowboys their second, and Colts & Packers for their third. Each of these teams covering would be great outcomes for bettors, and the book is hoping for an upset or at least an underdog to cover,” said Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager, BetMGM.
Bettors Eyeing Kamara
Most bet player props (tickets) at BetMGM are Tyler Warren (Colts) Over 47.5 Receiving yards -110, Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants) Over 42.5 Receiving yards -120, Alvin Kamara (Saints) Over 22.5 Receiving yards -120, Kyle Pitts (Falcons) Over 37.5 Receiving yards -135, and Bijan Robinson (Falcons) Over 81.5 Rushing yards -115.
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