Monarch Casino Still Picky on M&A, Could Deliver Another Special Dividend
Posted on: September 22, 2025, 12:42h.
Last updated on: September 22, 2025, 12:57h.
- Casino operator remains highly selective on mergers and acquisitions
- Analyst says another special dividend could be in the cards if Monarch doesn’t strike a deal over the next two years
In its typically quiet fashion, Monarch Casino & Resort (NASDAQ: MCRI) stock is on an impressive run this year, surging 30.43% while outpacing the S&P 500 by a margin of more than 2-to-1.
All that while remaining a two-casino outfit. Monarch’s roster of gaming venues remains comprised of the Atlantis in Reno and its namesake property in Black Hawk, Colo. By number of properties, the company is the smallest publicly traded casino operator in the US — a trait not lost on shareholders and one that has consistently sparked questions about potential deal-making.
In a new report to clients, Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas notes Monarch management remains highly selective about possible deals, but executives are open to adding to their portfolio provided targets meet specific criteria.
Those include properties where the operator also owns the real estate, targets in fundamentally sound, growing markets with solid regulations, and regions that don’t permit iGaming.
Earlier this year, Black Hawk joined the National Association Against iGaming (NAAG), becoming the first casino municipality in the country to do so. Internet casinos are permitted in Connecticut, Delaware, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia, so cross that group of the list of jurisdictions in which Monarch could go shopping.
Monarch Has Alternatives to M&A
Should Monarch not identify suitable acquisition targets, the company has other levers it can pull to keep investors engaged.
Jonas said if a deal isn’t struck in the next two years, the regional casino operator could deliver another special dividend to go along with its regular quarterly payout and “opportunistic” share repurchases. The analyst reiterated a “buy” rating and $120 price target on the stock.
He also points out suitors have previously expressed interest in acquiring the Reno-based gaming company, but management isn’t in a rush to sell and doesn’t need to be.
“MCRI has in the past received expressions of interest to acquire the company; and while they consider all options, they are ultimately focused on maximizing shareholder returns,” observes Jonas.
Monarch Focusing on Colorado
Black Hawk is one of the fastest-growing casino markets in the US, and with Denver having long been one of the marquee feeder markets to Las Vegas, there’s room for Monarch to add more share in Colorado by attracting more local customers.
Due to real estate restrictions, it would be difficult for Monarch to expand its property there, but Jonas said “management will look at all opportunities in the market, inclusive of M&A.”
The issue is whether or not any of the other operators in Black Hawk — a group including Bally’s, Caesars, Century Casinos, and Penn Entertainment — would be willing sellers. They might not be because, like Monarch, they know that Black Hawk is one of the most attractive gaming jurisdictions in the western US outside of Las Vegas.
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