DraftKings, Flutter are Betting Stocks to Own Going Into NFL Season
Posted on: September 3, 2025, 01:43h.
Last updated on: September 3, 2025, 02:28h.
- Parlays, structural hold are points of emphasis for investors, says analyst
- DraftKings/FanDuel duopoly still entrenched, hard to crack
Football fans can rejoice because college football is in full swing, and the NFL season kicks off on Thursday. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) investors could have reasons to celebrate as well because the return of football often ushers in a favorable period of seasonality for the betting stocks.
Some market participants are comfortable owning the two sports wagering behemoths into football season, not only because of changes to the calendar, but also because the operators and their peers were beset by customer-friendly outcomes in the fourth quarter of 2024, potentially paving the way for easier comparisons this year.
In a new report to clients, Stifel analyst Jeffery Stantial lays out multiple scenarios that could favor the case for handle re-acceleration for DraftKings and Flutter’s FanDuel, or weigh on that outlook. Possible headwinds mentioned by Stantial include an NFL schedule that doesn’t turn compelling until next month, signs of decelerating structural hold, and tier-two operators notching modest market share gains.
On the other hand, shares of the two sports betting juggernauts could be supported by same-game parlay product improvement, a stable promotional spending environment, and the departures of smaller, struggling competitors, among other factors.
DraftKings, FanDuel Duopoly Faces Competition
It’s widely known that DraftKings and FanDuel function as a duopoly, controlling 80% or more of the US online sports betting (OSB) industry. It’s also no secret that cracking that dominance has been a difficult goal for rivals to achieve, but the 2025 football season could be the period for competitors to make market share gains.
Among the publicly traded operators that could make headway against DraftKings and FanDuel are BetMGM, a joint venture of Entain and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), and Penn Entertainment’s (NASDAQ: PENN) ESPN Bet. Stantial also mentioned closely held Fanatics as being well positioned to tussle with DraftKings and FanDuel.
We expect several to make a push for share this football season, in particular PENN following more robust ESPN integrations and ahead of late-26 opt-out option,” observes the analyst. “In our view, privately-held Fanatics appears best-positioned given a clear #3 OSB product and sustained above-market promo investment.”
Data indicate Fanatics has been making progress in both iGaming and sports betting, including impressive OSB share gains in the marquee New York market.
It’s All About Parlays, Structural Hold
Investors mulling DraftKings and Flutter ahead of the fourth quarter should focus on the operators’ parlay innovation and structural hold, the former of which could be crucial at a time when prediction markets are forging into parlays.
Parlay mix and structural hold runway remains a key debate coming out of a Q2 print which saw more moderate expansion vs. peers (70bps vs. ~100bps),” said Stantial of Flutter. “Recent product improvements for the most part have been more iterative, with user adoption of FLUT’s foundational ‘Your Way’ likely critical in re-accelerating parlay mix and structural hold expansion.”
The analyst points out that DraftKings’ parlay mix and structural hold growth outpaced rival Flutter in recent quarters, but a theme to watch with DraftKings is its live betting handle. That’s been outpacing its pregame handle, “which is structurally disaccretive to parlay mix and hold,” according to Stantial.
No comments yet