AGA Study Shows Majority of People Want Regulation for Sports Event Contracts
Posted on: September 12, 2025, 12:53h.
Last updated on: September 12, 2025, 12:53h.
- Four in five Americans say sports event contracts should be regulated like other forms of sports betting
- Prediction markets introduce NFL offerings for new season
- Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket also offer spread and total categories
There has been a lot of talk and media coverage around prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket offering football event contracts as the new NFL season get going, but an American Gaming Association (AGA) study shows that most Americans want the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to pump the brakes on it.
85% Say They Want Regulation
According to AGA research, 85% of those surveyed say sports event contracts are most like gambling, while only 6% believe they are most like a financial instrument. Most Americans (80%) want sports event contracts regulated like other forms of gambling, while 5% believe this type of betting should be overseen by state and tribal gaming regulators, not the CFTC.
“This research has made it clear: Americans know a sports bet when they see one – and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller.
Prediction Markets Offer NFL Player Props
The core objective of the AGA is to advocate for and foster an environment where legal, regulated gaming operators can thrive.
On prediction platforms like Kalshi, people trade binary event contracts, with yes/no questions about NFL outcomes, in this case, with contracts trading like shares on a stock exchange. A quick scan at the Kalshi platform this morning shows offerings around all of Sunday’s NFL games. For example, the Bills have a 73% chance of beating the Jets, with the “yes” priced at 0.74 cents, so a wager of $100 pays out $136 if the Bills win, $371 if the Jets win.
Kalshi also offers spread and total categories, as well as player props, such as who will score a touchdown.
The CFTC’s primary mission is to oversee and regulate the U.S. derivatives market – futures, options and swaps – ensuring financial integrity and fair-trading conditions.
Football Parlays
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC. Polymarket just won CFTC approval to go live in the U.S.
Prediction markets have undergone massive growth in popularity, with venture capital pouring in on billion-dollar valuations.
“[The AGA research] underscores the need for the CFTC to enforce and uphold its own regulations that prohibit gaming contracts, and for Congress to use its oversight power to ensure prediction markets are not used as a backdoor for gaming,” Miller said.
States Should Have a Say
Other headlines from the study: 84% of Americans, and 69% of sports bettors, say that sports event contracts should only be available in state-licensed sportsbooks in the states where they are offered, while 69% of Americans believe each state needs to have say on whether sports event contracts can be offered in their state.
Seventy-per-cent in the study said that prediction platforms offering sports event contracts like NFL football are exploiting loopholes to act as unlicensed sportsbooks.
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