Sports Betting Hall of Famer Oddsmaker Avello on NFL Betting Strategy
Posted on: August 27, 2025, 02:18h.
Last updated on: August 27, 2025, 02:18h.
- NFL season kicks off Sept. 4 with Cowboys versus Eagles
- Bills and Ravens Super Bowl betting favourites
- Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello weighs in on what to focus on
Last year around this time the American Gaming Association announced its NFL betting estimates for the upcoming season – USD $35 billion with legal sportsbooks throughout the season. Soon we’ll see the estimates for this upcoming season.
Betting Strategy
Americans were expected to bet USD $1.4 billion legally on Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Oddsmakers have been planning for the 2025 season the moment the Eagles carried the Vince Lombardi Trophy off the field last February.
Casino.org interviewed popular Las Vegas Strip bookmaker Johnny Avello, the Sports Betting Hall of Famer, and Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, about what bettors should be looking out for this upcoming season.
Yesterday was interesting, since it was roster cutdown day, when teams were required to get their rosters down to 53 players. Nearly 1,200 players were out of jobs by the end of the day.
Season Gets Going Sept. 4
Some notable names were cut – QB Tommy DeVito with the New York Giants, WR Hunter Renfrow in Carolina, QB Kyle Trask in Tampa, WR Simi Fehoko in Arizona, CB Mike Hilton in Miami, WR Xavier Restrepo in Tennessee (Cameron Ward’s favorite target at Miami), veteran punter Cameron Johnston in Pittsburgh.
Nothing happened that will impact any betting lines, though, Avello told Casino.org.
Daniel Jones getting the QB job over Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis is the type of move that will move a line, but maybe half a point, Avello added. NFL betting lines are set down months in advance.
Adjusting Betting Lines After Week 1 and 2
“So our approach is, how strong is the team? Do they have a power rating, going in to start the season?” he said. “Home field, that advantage is worth X, depending on how they performed at home last year, and maybe some of the past years.
“We make some real big adjustments after the first week, second week, then those numbers stay solid. There will still be some adjustments here and there, but there could be some drastic changes after Week 1, after we see some of these teams play. Preseason changed a little bit (three games now). There used to be a longer preseason, some of the veteran guys would be in there after Week 1. Now, some of these guys don’t play at all. When they do play, it’s very minimal.
Eyes on Daniels, Burrow
“So our approach has changed a little bit. We’ve seen some of the teams going into season be a little bit rusty on offence, but the defences seem to be up to par. That’s something we noticed over the last couple of years. So that’s kind of our approach going in. We’ll feel pretty confident about what our opening power ratings are, going in. We’ll just make some adjustments quickly.”
As Avello told us, looking at yesterday’s cuts, those are players that aren’t going to degrade teams, so who are they as oddsmakers to say otherwise and adjust lines accordingly?
Yesterday’s moves aren’t going to move the betting needle, he added.
Roster Cuts Have Little Impact on Lines
“The Titans cut [Xavier] Restrepo,” he said. “He was one of their top receivers. He was a top receiver for Cam Ward. I guess Cam Ward’s going to be looking somewhere else this year, but that team’s not highly rated anyway.”
Where does Avello expect to see the greatest betting action this upcoming season?
No surprise – Bills (Super Bowl odds +600), Eagles (+700), Ravens (+600), Chiefs (+850), are on that list. Then there are second-tier teams, like the Broncos (+2200), Patriots (+6000), Bears (+4500), Bengals (+2200) and Chargers (+2500), that Avello has his eyes on.
There are some player performances and team trends from last season that impacted this season’s lines.
Will Barkley Dominate?
“Jalen Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year, we didn’t see that year coming from him,” Avello said. “Obviously there are high expectations for [the Commanders]. We’ll see if there are more adjustments to make [with Washington]. Joe Burrow, being the Comeback Player of the Year, he was tremendous last year, he could have been MVP. That’s a guy we expect money to come in on props, also money to come on the team [Bengals] on a weekly basis.
“We continue to watch [Saquon] Barkley [Eagles RB]. He was bet first touchdown scorer every single game [last season],” he said. “Watch the 49ers – without Deebo Samuel [traded to the Commanders in March] and Christian McCaffrey, when they were hurt last year, they were very average.”
The Bills were 8-0 at home last year, always good at Highmark Stadium. The Browns ended last season losing six in a row, so we will keep an eye on them, see if bettors continue to bet against them.
Watching Wilson Closely
“The Lions are going to take a lot of handle this year, each and every game they play,” he added.
Avello also pointed out how the average yards per game passing was way down overall around the league. Teams, including quarterbacks, are running the ball more. That’s something they are keeping an eye on, because it may be changing the way oddsmakers view props and the way they look at the game overall.
Avello said he will also be watching Russell Wilson closely as QB of the Giants, with rookie Jaxson Dart nipping at his heals, how No. 1 overall draft Ward does with the Titans, and Ashton Jeanty, the rookie RB with the Raiders, that a lot of people are talking about.
Bettors also need to remember this year’s rule change, where the touchback goes to the 35-yard line, giving a team better offensive position, which may change the totals a little bit, Avello said. Both teams get a possession in overtime now, which can make a difference in the line and the totals, as well.
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