In Josh We Trust: Allen Betting Favourite for NFL MVP After Lights Out Performance
Posted on: September 8, 2025, 06:21h.
Last updated on: September 9, 2025, 07:33h.
- Allen leads Bills to come-from-behind late game comeback win over Ravens
- Allen now clear betting favourite for NFL MVP
- Bills vault to outright Super Bowl betting favourites
Many who watched Sunday night’s thrilling Buffalo Bills’ 41-40 win over the Baltimore Ravens were saying the same thing – they might have witnessed the greatest game of the 2025 season on the first weekend of the NFL schedule.
Thrill Ride
Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen took fans on a theme park thrill ride with more than its share of peaks and valleys.
Down 15 points with 4:48 left in the fourth quarter, many fans started filing out of Highmark Stadium, thinking the game was over. Many of those at home were nodding off or going to bed.
After leading his team back with two touchdowns, setting up a winning 32-yard field by Matt Prater with the clock at 0:00, Allen (33/46, 394 yards, 2 TDs) stood on the field and politely admonished those who had left earlier.
Allen had over 250 yards passing in the 4th quarter, accounting for three touchdowns – the only QB in the last 35 years to have have 250+ total yards and 3+ total touchdowns in the fourth quarter in a win. With 4:48 to go in the game the Bills had a .9% chance of winning according to ESPN’s win probability tracker. That’s how good Allen was.
“Have some faith next time,” he told NBC.
Allen Now NFL MVP Betting Favourite
At ESPN BET, before pulling off the comeback, the Bills live ML odds were as high as +2000. 74.3% of live ML bets and 32.7% of live ML handle were on the Bills. Then Bills’ defensive tackle Ed Oliver forced a fumble on Ravens’ running back Derrick Henry on the Ravens’ second last possession.
Oddsmakers have faith. Not that Allen likely cares much about MVP, but this morning we found he took a massive leap in NFL MVP Futures – +600 to +350 at Caesars Sportsbook, with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson going from +550 to +450, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes moving from +650 to +800, the Packers’ Jordan Love going from +1600 to +1200, and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts going from +2000 to +1400.
Henry Runs For 167 Yards
The big story on the sports betting front after NFL Week 1 was Allen’s performance. In a game where Ravens’ running back Henry incinerated the Bills’ defence, rushing for 169 yards and 2 TDs, while Jackson danced around defenders, rushing for 70 yards and 1 TD, throwing for 209 yards and 2 TDs, it was Allen who wouldn’t let the Bills fold.
Same deal with Allen MVP wagering at ESPN BET – Allen entered the weekend tied for second to win MVP at +600, and is now the betting favourite at +375. Jackson, who entered Sunday as the favorite at +450, slid back to +500, and Joe Burrow now sits in third (+600 before/after Sunday).
Rodgers in the Mix
Since yesterday, Allen has gotten 8.1% of MVP bets and 24.4% of handle, the most handle ahead of Aaron Rodgers (11.3% of bets, 13.3% of handle) and Henry (5.2% of bets, 11.5% of handle). Rodgers moved from +6000 to +5000 to win MVP, and Henry stayed at +7500.
Henry did move from +1400 to the +700 favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, bypassing Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson, who all had better odds than the Ravens running back entering Sunday. However, it’s Bijan Robinson seeing the most handle (20.8%) of the OPOY market since yesterday. Henry has drawn the ninth-most handle at 4.4%.
Bills Now Super Bowl Favourites
So much line movement came out of that Bills-Ravens game. According to ESPN BET, the Bills moved from Super Bowl co-favorites with Baltimore (both +650 entering Sunday) to outright favorites (now +550) after their head-to-head win on SNF. The Packers jumped up to fourth best odds (+800) to win the Super Bowl after entering Sunday at +1100 (6th best odds). Green Bay leapfrogged the Chiefs (+1000 before/after Sunday) and Lions (+900 entering Sunday, +1400 now).
According the FanDuel, the most popular betting markets since NFL kickoff were Henry, Anytime Touchdown Scorer, Bengals, Moneyline and Bills, Moneyline.
Notable Line Movements
Notable line movements after Week 1 according to a DraftKings spokesperson: Colts’ Super Bowl odds going from +15000 to +10000, Packers’ Super Bowl odds going from +1200 to +900, and Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds jumping from +12000 to +20000.
“Overall, Week 1 resulted in a modest win for customers, primarily driven by outcomes in the Money Line and Total markets. The Spread market was neutral, with results breaking even,” said Craig Mucklow, Vice President of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook.
“The 2025 season has picked up right where 2024 left off, with favorites continuing their strong run. Every favorite Won on Sunday except for the Patriots, reinforcing the trend that has consistently benefited bettors,” he said. “One standout exception was the Raiders, who entered Week 1 as a popular underdog throughout the offseason. They were the only dog to win outright, and their victory aligned with customer sentiment.
“The key factor of the overall impact was the volume of Unders, 11 games finished under the total with the lowest total on the board, Steelers at Jets, being the lone Over… this helped shift the outcome from what could have been a tremendous start for customers to an above-average opening Sunday.”
No comments yet