Huge Swings in Super Bowl Odds After NFL Week 10
Posted on: November 10, 2025, 01:35h.
Last updated on: November 10, 2025, 02:00h.
- Sunday’s slate of NFL games resulted in a shakeup of Super Bowl odds across the league
- The Buffalo Bills saw their odds lengthen, while the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks are looking at shorter odds
The level of how smitten casual bettors are with individual NFL teams fluctuates over the course of a season, as narratives play out, and favorites and underdogs rise and fall.
Monday morning’s peak at ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index is a case in point after Week 10’s games.
Last week, the Buffalo Bills, after a big Week 9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, were No. 1 in projected wins at 11.9, followed by the Indianapolis Colts at 11.6.
The Bills, however, crapped the bed Sunday in the rain in Miami against the now 3-7 Dolphins, losing 30-13. They now sit a full two games back of the New England Patriots in the AFC East. The Patriots own the tie-breaker between the two teams after their upset 23-20 win over the Bills in Week 5.
Bills Slip in Super Bowl Odds
The Index now projects 11.0 wins for the Bills, and they’re looking up at the Rams (12.1), Patriots (11.9), Colts (11.9), Denver Broncos (11.6), Seattle Seahawks (11.5), and the Philadelphia Eagles (11.3).
Folks who bet on the Bills to win the Super Bowl are no doubt looking at early cash-out options. Buffalo was awful on Sunday – they turned the ball over three times, including a Josh Allen interception in the end zone when the Bills had the ball on the Miami five-yard line late in the third quarter, down 16-0. That was a backbreaker. Allen would also fumble on a botched tush-push play.
Have the Bills lost their Super Bowl window? Maybe, because the Patriots are back, beating the Bucs Sunday 28-23, to go to 8-2.
The teams meet one more time, in Foxborough on December 14. The Patriots also have two more games against the lowly Jets, and one against the 2-8 Giants.
Ravens Looking Far More Attractive with Jackson Back in Lineup
How did the sportsbooks see things on Sunday?
“The Berlin game between the Falcons and the Colts definitely had some drama,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Opening at -5.5 and closing at -6.5 created a tight window where line shoppers could have landed on either side of the result.
With the Colts clearly the better team but failing to capitalize on multiple fourth-down opportunities, anyone backing Indy at -6.5 must’ve felt the sting of missed chances. That kind of game really highlights how crucial timing is in betting and how frustrating it can be when the right side doesn’t cash.”
Feazel added that the Ravens are attracting more attention from the betting public with Lamar Jackson back in form. “Their momentum is palpable, and it’s no surprise that they were a big win for customers.”
He added that the Texans’ comeback win on Sunday was one of those classic “bad beat” moments for the book. “A defensive walk-off that flips the spread is always a gut punch, especially when it swings both pregame and in-play markets.”
Good games for the book on Sunday were found in the AFC East, where, other than the Bills, the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots wins were the winners for the book in the early games against very popular selections.
Giants Fire Daboll
Monday’s news headlines are dominated by the NY Giants firing of Head Coach Brian Daboll. The Giants have a QB of the future in Jaxson Dart, but he suffered a concussion on Sunday during the Giants’ loss to the Bears 24-20. The G-Men are now 2-8 on the season.
Sunday games resulted in some wild Super Bowl odds swings, led by the Bills going from +590 to +850, the Seahawks going from +1100 to +900, the Ravens going from +1900 to +1400, and the Patriots going from +2500 to +1500, at Caesars Sportsbook.
Tonight’s “Monday Night Football” game is a doozy, with the Packers hosting the Eagles. The Packers are moneyline favorites at -118, over the Eagles -102 (Eagles’ line getting 81% of bets and 60% of handle at BetMGM). The Packers are coming off an upset 16-13 loss to the underdog Panthers in Week 9.
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