DraftKings Q3 Earnings Could Be Pinched by NFL Results, Says Analyst

Posted on: September 17, 2025, 12:23h. 

Last updated on: September 17, 2025, 12:36h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Rough NFL start could weigh on DraftKings Q3 EBITDA
  • There’s positivity around the operator’s parlay mix and structural hold

Just two weeks into the 2025 NFL season and it’s becoming apparent that DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), and likely its rivals, are reliving a prominent theme from last year: customer-friendly outcomes. For now, the situation is concerning enough that at least one analyst estimates the operator’s third-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is trending lower.

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DraftKings Q3 earnings could be dinged by early NFL outcomes, but an analyst says there’s positivity around parlays and structural hold. (Image: Shutterstock/DraftKings/Casino.org)

In a new note to clients, Citizens Equity Research Analyst Jordan Bender said that two weeks into the NFL season, DraftKings is “tracking below” the third-quarter consensus EBITDA forecast of $51 million – sentiment arriving with just two NFL weekends remaining before the end of the quarter. One culprit is easy to spot: the week one classic between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.

Week 1 Sunday Night Football (Bills/Ravens) was the single-worst game outcome ever for the company, with player props hitting and bettors piling into the Bills moneyline before the game and during the contest when the team was down 15 points (eventually won),” observes Bender.

Excluding that outcome, results through the first two weeks of NFL action have been in line with DraftKings’ expectations, according to the analyst.

DraftKings Has NFL Positives, Too

Online sportsbook operators dealt with a string of customer-friendly NFL outcomes late last year and into the first quarter, stoking hope that there would be some reversion to the mean this year. While that scenario hasn’t materialized in earnest as of yet, there’s plenty of time for it to happen, and there are positives for DraftKings to hang its hat on.

Those include a strong parlay mix and a structural hold that’s pacing ahead of expectations. Following meetings with DraftKings executives, including co-founder and CEO Jason Robins, Bender said the points about parlays and structural hold “bode well for the underlying business.

“Across revenue drivers, Mr. Robins is seeing player engagement, retention, acquisition, in-play product, and promotional spend tracking in line with or better than expectations to start the season,” adds the analyst.

Bender also points out that game-specific outcomes and pricing volatility on some bets for NFL primetime games are issues on the minds of investors, but notes DraftKings is confident in its pricing, which is in line with the industry, indicating the concerns aren’t company-specific.

Prediction Markets Comments

Not surprisingly, prediction markets were a point of emphasis in Bender’s meeting with DraftKings management, with the analyst saying “there was nothing material to report” around the operator’s plans to potentially enter that space.

He hypothesized that if DraftKings does make a prediction markets move, it won’t be comparable to what rival Flutter Entertainment is doing with CME Group, and that DraftKings would confine a possible yes/no exchange offering to states where sports betting isn’t allowed, likely shutting it down if those jurisdictions approve sports wagering.

That brings to mind California, Texas, and Georgia, but California could be out of the equation because tribal casino operators aren’t fans of prediction markets. Relationships with California tribes are pivotal if DraftKings and its rivals hope to make sports betting headway there.