Caesars, MGM Earnings at Risk Following Las Vegas GGR Report
Posted on: January 29, 2026, 06:18h.
Last updated on: January 29, 2026, 06:18h.
- December gross gaming revenue (GGR) report was disappointing
- Analyst says it highlights risk to Caesars, MGM Las Vegas earnings
- Sees better opportunities for investors with other casino stocks
The December gross gaming revenue (GGR) report released Wednesday showed Las Vegas Strip casino operators generated sales of $828 million – a 6% year-over-year decline painting an ominous picture of upcoming earnings reports from Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM).
In a note to clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said the weak December GGR update says there’s risk to Las Vegas operators’ fourth-quarter earnings reports, underscoring why the research firm moved Las Vegas to its least desirable gaming category.
We continue to expect higher-end properties to outperform, including Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) over MGM/CZR,” observes the analyst. “While we believe the long- term Vegas thesis remains intact, we worry softness from the leisure/international customer will persist this year, following 3 years of growth post COVID.”
Caesars, the second-largest operator on the Strip, delivers its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 17 after the close of US markets while larger rival MGM reports on Feb. 11.
Caesars, MGM Plagued by Las Vegas Weakness
Both casino stocks are coming off disappointing showings in 2025 and unless things dramatically improve in Las Vegas over the near-term, investors may opt to avoid these names.
That’s a logical response because while the two gaming giants have sprawling portfolios across the US, they’re heavily dependent on Sin City. MGM depends on the US casino hub for 47% of its revenue, barely ahead of 45% for Caesars, according to Macquarie data. Those percentages are double the 23% of sales Wynn derives from Las Vegas.
That dependency is one of the reasons some on Wall Street are leery of Caesars and MGM. To start 2026, MGM endured a downgrade with a sell-side analyst citing still tepid earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDAR) trends as potential headwinds to the casino stock.
Investors looking for reasons to be optimistic about Caesars and MGM are apt to focus on possible rebounding visitation trends in Las Vegas, declining interest rates, and hopes that middle-income consumer sentiment improves.
It’s Not All Bad News in Las Vegas
While the aforementioned December GGR report may not bode well for Strip operators’ fourth-quarter earnings, that trend isn’t permeating all of Las Vegas. In fact, there’s clear strength in the locals segment, indicating shares of Boyd Gaming (NYSE: BYD) and Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR) could be poised for another year of outperformance.
“Based on 4Q25 market data, we believe RRR and BYD are positioned to outperform current 4Q consensus estimates for their respective retail segments,” adds Beynon.
He rates Boyd “neutral” with a $92 price target and Red Rock “outperform” with a $70 price forecast.
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