Trader Talk: Brewers the Big Major League Baseball Betting Story
Posted on: August 20, 2025, 05:19h.
Last updated on: August 20, 2025, 05:25h.
- Caesars Sportsbook Head of Baseball weighs in on MLB betting trends
- Betting focus on the Brewers, Blue Jays
- Yankees gaining ground in AL East
We’re in the dog days of summer; a time Major League Baseball races start to get interesting. MLB sports betting is heating up on several fronts as well, according to Eric Biggio, Head of Baseball at Caesars Sportsbook.
Yankees Charging Hard
A quick glance at the news headlines today shows the New York Yankees charging hard in the American East (four wins in a row, 4.5 games back of the first place Toronto Blue Jays) after a rougher July. The Yankees hit 9 homeruns in a 13-3 win against the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday.
The Philadelphia Phillies, six games up on the New York Mets in the National League East, are now having to do without one of their best pitchers, Zack Wheeler (10-4, 2.71 ERA), on the disabled list dealing a blood clot in his shoulder. Wheeler underwent a thrombolysis procedure on Monday to remove the clot. Who knows when he’ll be back. That takes some shine off of all the Kyle Schwarber for MVP talk.
Brewers the Big Betting Story
The Mets are always an interesting watch. After holding a 1.5-game lead over the Phillies July 27, they went into the tank in August, swept in series against the San Diego Padres, Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers.
Today the Mets, with the second largest payroll in baseball after the L.A. Dodgers, sit just one game up on the Cincinnati Reds for the last NL wildcard spot.
From a betting perspective, according to Biggio, the big storyline is the machine the Milwaukee Brewers have turned into.
The Brewers are 79-47, seven games up on the Chicago Cubs in the National League Central.
MVP Betting Market Heating Up
“We’ve turned from needing the Brewers for the World Series to us losing a decent amount if they win it all,” he said. “On a day-to-day basis, the public has definitely jumped on the bandwagon, so they turn into one of our bigger decisions daily.”
The Brewers are a powerhouse, the best team in baseball, and are +750 at Caesars Sportsbook to win the World Series, after the Dodgers (+325) and the Phillies (+650)
“The American League MVP market is a fun one too, with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh battling it out,” Biggio said. “There are some big tickets on long odds for Cal Raleigh out there, so that is a big market for us.”
When asked which MLB teams were attracting the most betting action, again the focus has been Milwaukee.
Bettors Like the Blue Jays
“The Toronto Blue Jays lately, as well,” he added. “People still like to get in on the Yankees and Dodgers, so if it’s a combination of those teams winning, we know it will be a tough day behind the counter.”
“To start the season, the betting angle was to fade the Rockies on a daily basis, so that needed the biggest adjustments daily. We would anticipate money coming in on whomever was playing the Colorado. Thankfully, they’ve been more competitive since the All-Star break, so that’s slowed the steady stream of money against.”
Skubal and Skenes Having the Biggest Impact
Since starting pitchers heavily influence game outcomes, the two biggest are your Cy Young favourites, Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes are having the biggest impact when it comes to setting moneylines, runlines and over/under odds.
“People love betting their pitching K’s over, the game totals under, and fade their opponents,” said Biggio.
“So the biggest trend I can think of is how starting pitchers are handled. For example, limited pitch counts, and teams really trying to limit the amount of innings for somebody like Paul Skenes.
In-Play Seeing Good Amount of Handle
Similarly, a guy like Shohei Ohtani, whom the Dodgers have been very conservative in his starts, going from two to three innings. That presents a real challenge of coming up with a market like over/under strikeouts when you’re also guessing how many innings they’ll pitch.”
According to Caesars Sportsbook In-Play Baseball Lead, Austin Topel, in-play betting for MLB sees a good amount of handle, especially right now when not many other big sports are going on.
Ohtani Betting
“It will slowly decrease as football starts up, but then pick up again with playoff baseball,” he said. “As far as odds adjusting in real-time, we can attribute the quickness of that to the baseball model that will spit out new prices as things unfold in the game.
“With a few clicks of the mouse, traders can then adjust even more, given the circumstances. Maybe we want to play it safe and align ourselves with the rest of the market, or maybe there’s a strong bat coming up with some runners on base and we adjust that side more. Many factors are taken into consideration, and I think each game can be traded with a different approach.”
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