Big Betting Storyline for NFL Week 4: Micah Parsons’ return to Jerry World
Posted on: September 26, 2025, 03:52h.
Last updated on: September 26, 2025, 03:54h.
- Bills spread versus Saints hits -15.5
- Bettors should avoid Chiefs versus Ravens
- Parsons’ return to Dallas generating biggest handle at ESPN BET
Betting storylines for the NFL going into Week 4 includes how big the spread for the Bills and Saints will end of being (right now it’s Bills -15.5), if the Chiefs end up 1-3 (playing the 1-2 Ravens), and what kind of impact QB Jaxson Dart will have on the Giants in his rookie debut against the Chargers.
Bills -15.5 Against the Saints
Micah Parsons returns to Dallas with his Green Bay Packers. The Steelers play the Vikings at Croke Parkin Dublin, Ireland. Six teams remain undefeated going into the weekend, with two of them, the Eagles and Bucs, meeting head-to-head. The Bills, Colts, 49ers, and Chargers are the other teams.
“The Bills have the biggest spread of the NFL season thus far, but bettors haven’t been afraid to lay two touchdowns, as Buffalo (opened -14.5, now –15.5) is our second most bet spread by tickets, and third most-bet by handle,” said Adrian Horton, Senior Director, North American Sports Trading, ESPN BET. “The Lions have also pushed out to double digits, now –10.5 against the Browns and are the third-most bet spread by tickets and second most-bet by handle.
Parsons’ Return to Big D
“The Chargers have been a popular pick as well this week, with the most tickets to win outright (-300 ML) and to cover (-6.5) against the Giants and rookie QB Jaxson Dart. Our most bet game by total handle is Packers-Cowboys as Micah Parsons returns to Jerry World in primetime. It’s been largely one-way traffic on Green Bay, with over 80% of spread tickets and 90% of handle to cover –6.5 on the road. Parsons to record a sack is currently our third most-bet player prop (excluding Anytime TDs) by total handle.”
At BetMGM, on the prop side (tickets), bettors like Omarion Hampton (LAC) Over 65.5 Rushing yards -115, Jaylen Warren (PIT) Over 21.5 Receiving yards -140, Hunter Henry (NE) Over 39.5 Receiving yards -110, J.K. Dobbins (DEN) Over 59.5 Rushing yards -145, and Daniel Jones (IND) Over 215.5 Passing yards -115.
Which Super Bowl Favourites Will End Up 1-3?
“Sunday morning of Week 4 kicks off with a trip across the pond, and bettors are backing the Vikings to handle business in Dublin against the Steelers. Stateside, all eyes are on Sunday night as the Packers roll into Dallas for Micah Parsons’ return, and the public is all over Green Bay. Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos are also popular picks for the public this week,” said Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager, BetMGM.
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets) at BetMGM are the Steelers (+120), Saints (+1000), Chiefs (+125), Colts (+155) and Bucs (+155).
At DraftKings, focusing on the six undefeated teams, the Chargers are seeing 91% of handle and 93% of bets at -278 for their game against the Giants, the Eagles are getting 67% of handle and 72% of bets in their game against the Bucs (-192, with the Bucs +160), the Bills at -1450 are seeing 84% of handle and 97% of bets against the Saints, the 49ers at -166 are getting 48% of handle and 75% of bets against the Jaguars, and the surprising Colts, underdogs against the Rams (+160), are seeing 44% of handle and 31% of bets.
Avoid Betting Chiefs/Ravens
Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction for more than 20 years, and an industry consultant, said Chiefs/Ravens is a good game for bettors to stay away from.
“Two teams looking to stay away from that oh-so sputtering start of 1-3,” he said. “Historically Lamar Jackson hasn’t done well against Kansas City (1-5). Could that change with what looks to be a less-than- what-we’re-used-to explosive Patrick Mahomes offence? Currently they are producing in all areas well below anything in the Mahomes era. Last week against the Giants doesn’t count in my opinion.
“However the Chiefs as +2.5 point dogs at home, I’d expect to see the public hit that moneyline on them +125 or better at some shops, given that I’d be surprised if we saw the game move to 3. Looks to be some interest in the under 48.5, but Lamar can put up the points. I’d lean to the over in what could be a real battle if Mahomes finds his stride.”
Bills/Saints Monstrous Spread a Surprise
Bills at -16.5 points at some sportsbooks is a lot to give any team, Gray added. That may drift back a bit towards kickoff. Double-digit favourites are a remarkable 57.5% to cover over the past five years, he said.
“And keeping with trends coming off a win favourites with double digit spreads are however just past breaking even, so flip a coin on this one for the spread. The Bills straight up will certainly be a major part of combos and spread teasers. The books will need some sort of New Orleans miracle to at least keep it close,” he said.
“Jaxson Dart may be the the hope of the franchise and looked pretty good in preseason but his first start will be in tough against what could be the best D in the NFL. Number 1 in the red zone. Likely to see some action the Giants moneyline (+250 or better) with the hype and the fans hoping for the improbable start to [Dart’s] career. Money on LA -6.5 should pour in. I could see this game getting to 7 if that Giants’ money straight-up doesn’t come in.”
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