Wynn Resorts Stock a Catalyst-Rich Environment, Says Analyst
Posted on: September 18, 2025, 03:38h.
Last updated on: September 18, 2025, 03:41h.
- Stock is already on fire, but analyst sees room for more upside
- Case can be made Wynn is still a value stock
Shares of Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) are higher by nearly 48% year-to-date with essentially all of that gain accrued over the past 90 days and while the stock is flirting with 52-week highs, there could be more upside on the way.
That’s the take of Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski who reiterated a “buy” rating on the stock while revising his price target to $145, implying 20% upside from current levels. Buoyed by Macau’s resurgence and increasing clarity around its United Arab Emirates (UAE) project, Wynn stock has doubled off its post-Liberation Day lows, but that doesn’t mean near-term upside is limited.
We believe there are multiple catalysts on the horizon that should allow shares to further appreciate over the next six-to-twelve months,” observes Wieczynski. “Valuation remains underwhelming and continues to discount the recovery in Macau, in our opinion.”
Macau’s 2025 rebound has been something to behold, Wieczynski argues that Wynn’s current valuation implies market participants are too pessimistic about the special administrative region’s (SAR) long-term gross gaming revenue (GGR) trajectory, adding Wynn’s focus on premium mass customers and VIPs is a durable long-term strategy.
Why Wynn Stock May Be Overvalued
The Stifel analyst lays out a multi-part case regarding why shares of Wynn are arguably undervalued even when accounting for the recent surge.
Keep in mind the stock closed just under $129 today. He says Wynn’s Las Vegas assets are worth $55 share and throw in another $3 for the operator’s unused land in the city. Encore Boston Harbor is worth another $10 per share with the UAE casino resort valued at $18 to $25 per share. Call that $20 and throw in another $11 a share from the operator’s Macau royalty stream and that’s $99, implying the two Macau venues account for just $30 of the current share price.
Arguably, that’s far too low because Wynn Macau (HK1128) accounts for the bulk of the parent company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and revenue.
“We don’t care what kind of environment you want to price into Macau, but there is no way you can say their Macau assets are only worth ~$20/share,” adds Wieczynski. “That just doesn’t make sense to us. To help us keep our sanity, if you take the current market cap of WYNN which is ~$12.7B and subtract out their stake in HK1128 that would say their non-Macau assets are worth about $90/share or their Macau assets should be worth at least $30/share. We think this simple math is getting overlooked by investors but at some point there must be some value (>$20/share) ascribed to their Macau assets.”
Catalysts Abound for Wynn Stock
The analyst points out that Wynn has a variety of catalysts over the next six to 12 months, including multiple UAE investor presentations scheduled for December. It’s likely the operator wouldn’t be committing resources and time to those events if takeaways weren’t going to be positive. Wieczynski added it’s possible initial UAE EBITDA forecasts could come up.
Other catalysts mentioned by the analyst include Wynn’s ability to wring higher profits out of the Macau unit and some insolation in Las Vegas from the otherwise negative sentiment currently afflicting the US casino hub.
“We continue to think WYNN represents one of the better buying opportunities as we think about under-loved/undervalued names across our coverage universe,” concludes Wieczynski. “With multiple catalysts on the horizon and potential upside to our still conservative estimates, we would be aggressive buyers of WYNN shares at current levels as we believe the risk/reward is overly favorable.”
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