Super Bowl Betting Expected to Decline 2% to $1.5 Billion, Says Analyst
Posted on: January 27, 2026, 01:17h.
Last updated on: January 27, 2026, 01:24h.
- Operators face tough hold comps
- This year’s matchup could result in lower handle
- Prediction markets sources of pressure, too
Super Bowl LX, the 60th edition of the NFL’s biggest game, is coming up on Sunday, February 8, but it might not be the needle mover sportsbook operators and some investors are hoping for.
In a report out Tuesday, Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender forecasts legal Super Bowl betting of $1.5 billion this year, a 2% year-over-year decline, and that’s even when accounting for the addition of Missouri to the ranks of states where online sports betting is legal. Bender said that with the previous Super Bowl being a high-hold affair, operators face tough comparisons (comps) this year.
The comp will be tough across the broader industry with gaming operators holding around 17% last year, well above a one standard deviation move,” notes Bender.
On the bright side for investors, due to the fact that Missouri is the only new state, operators’ promotional spending as a percentage of Super Bowl handle is likely to decline on a year-over-year basis, according to the analyst.
Super Bowl Betting Affected by Storylines
Super Bowl 59 had interesting storylines, including Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid facing off against the team he previously coached, and the Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift love story that compelled casual fans and recreational bettors to get involved.
This year’s iteration of the game doesn’t have that pizazz, and it lacks big-name players such as Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) and Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles. Those factors don’t imply Super LX won’t be competitive or lacking in football entertainment value, but Bender notes those issues could weigh on handle for what is the most wagered on sporting event in the US.
Still, Super Bowl LX is likely to result in a spate of sports betting mobile application downloads and potentially decent levels of customer acquisition for gaming companies.
“Players acquired during this period are often not the highest quality, but the 523K downloads on Super Bowl Sunday last year represented 45% more than any other day during 2025,” says Bender.
Prediction Markets Loom Large
Prediction markets are wild cards with Super Bowl wagering this year because Super Bowl LX represents the first edition of the NFL’s marquee game in which yes/no exchanges are serving up broad-based sports menus.
“Prediction markets, already seeing impressive volume on the game, are creating some pressure in the legal market,” concludes Bender. “Overall, the tough hold comp and handle down year-over-year imply ‘in line’ gaming margins could result in gaming revenue down ~35% for the Super Bowl.”
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