Rush Street Interactive Stock Could Be Prediction Markets Buffer
Posted on: October 30, 2025, 12:15h.
Last updated on: October 30, 2025, 12:41h.
- RSI raised 2025 guidance
- It’s more focused on iGaming than sports betting, implying less vulnerability to prediction markets
- CEO says prediction market expansion could actually help the company
In what could be a case of investors focusing too intently on the online sports wagering/prediction markets competition, Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) stock is trading lower Thursday after the company lifted 2025 guidance late Wednesday.
Shares of Rush Street are lower by about 7% in midday trading, extending a slide that’s seen the stock shed 22.18% over the past month. It’s followed larger sports betting rivals DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) lower over that time, indicating investors have been spooked about the rise of prediction markets. However, investors may be missing the mark regarding the impact of yes/no exchanges on RSI stock.
We are monitoring this space closely. As a casino-first company, we see less direct competitive risk than sportsbook heavy operators,” said CEO Richard Schwartz on a conference call with analysts. “In fact, if prediction markets create tax revenue erosion concerns for states, this could accelerate online casino legalization as states seek more protected revenue streams, a development that would actually benefit RSI given our market-leading experience in online casino.”
Confirming the benefits of being an iGaming-first company — and one that it’s not experiencing significant online sports betting attrition at the hands of prediction markets — Rush Street said monthly active users (MAUs) in the US and Canada jumped 34% in the third quarter, led by a 46% surge in online casino patrons.
Rush Street Again Lifts 2025 Guidance
Although the stock isn’t responding today, RSI again increased its 2025 outlook. The company now expects 2025 sales of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion on adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) $147 million to $153 million.
The midpoints of those ranges imply growth of 20% and 62%, respectively, indicating investors may be overly concerned about the effects of prediction markets on RSI’s sports betting business. It’s unlikely the operator would be raising guidance if it were losing revenue. In fact, it’s setting itself apart from some sportsbook competitors.
“Ongoing enhancements across both iGaming and OSB platforms are fueling deeper user engagement, and despite favorable player outcomes, RSI saw its highest online sports betting hold rate to-date in 3Q25,” observes Jefferies analyst David Katz.
The hold commentary is particularly relevant because it’s widely expected that operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel saw third-quarter earnings hampered by customer-friendly NFL outcomes – a situation confirmed by Caesars Entertainment’s (NASDAQ: CZR) digital unit earlier this week.
Rush Street Interactive Stock Has PM Defenses
RSI has another form of defense against prediction markets: the company isn’t nearly as North America-dependent as are rival operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and others.
The Illinois-based operator has significant exposure to Latin America, and while the Colombian value-added tax situation is a drag, the overall results from the region are impressive. In the third quarter, RSI’s MAUs in the region surged 30% to a record 415K.
The company added that revenue in Mexico doubled in the July quarter and, despite the drag of the Colombian tax scheme, its gross gaming revenue (GGR) there soared over 50%.
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