NFL Gambling Deal Architect Weighs in on MLB-Polymarket Partnership
Posted on: March 22, 2026, 04:16h.
Last updated on: March 22, 2026, 04:16h.
- MLB-Polymarket announce new partnership
- MLB latest pro sports league to enter the prediction market space
- Interview with former NFL lawyer who negotiated and drafted gambling contracts for the league
Major League Baseball’s decision to enter the prediction market space, signing a deal with Polymarket, has generated a lot of discussion and debate, especially for a sport that has a long, sordid history when it comes to gambling, going all the way back to the Black Sox game-fixing scandal during the 1919 World Series.
Sordid History
MLB on Thursday named Polymarket the league’s official prediction market exchange (online platforms where users wager on the outcomes of future events). MLB is the latest in a line of deals involving pro sports leagues and prediction market companies – Major League Soccer’s multi-year deal with Polymarket announced in January, Polymarket and Kalshi’s multi-year deal with the National Hockey League announced last October.
However, the debate about the legality of prediction markets remains loud. The American Gaming Association, working for the regulated sports betting industry, has been waging an ongoing information battle against sports event contracts offered through prediction markets. The AGA said prediction markets should be regulated in the same way as other forms of legal, state-regulated sports betting.
MLB-CFTC Deal
Companies like Polymarket say what they offer are financial instruments governed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The AGA released a survey last September that said 85% of Americans surveyed viewed sports event contracts as gambling – only 6% said they are most like a financial instrument.
As part of the deal, Polymarkets gets to use MLB marks and logos on its platform and data from Sportradar for its baseball markets. A key component of the partnership is the establishment of an integrity framework, working together to restrict markets that are integrity risks, like individual pitches, manager decisions, and umpire performance.
Legality Debate
Also, MLB and the CFTC signed an agreement centred around the confidential sharing of information – all part of warding off threats to the integrity of the game, ensuring swift response to incidents, anticipating emerging trends, as prediction markets continue to grow and evolve.
Reaction and opinion to this have been widespread – a blurry line between betting and investing, too risky, or smart, boosting fan engagement for the new age, incorporating crypto (since that’s what people use to bet on Polymarket), using the CFTC to keep things clean?
There’s no better perspective on this than from Doug Mishkin, a former lawyer at the NFL and current partner at BCLP in Manhattan, a law firm there. Mishkin was the lead attorney the NFL’s major gambling deals, negotiating and drafting the contracts, working across key sports betting initiatives following the 2018 ruling that legalized sports gambling nationwide.
Pro Sports Leagues and Prediction Markets
“At this point, with sports prediction market platforms enjoying widespread popularity among sports fans, it’s not irrational for leagues to conclude that their best option is to exert whatever control they still can via contractual partnerships – while naturally benefitting financially as well,” he said.
But sports leagues and teams have not historically been immersed in the Commodities Exchange Act, which passed in 1936 – whereas with sports betting in the U.S., the leagues were actively engaged with state regulators at the outset, to help shape new state-by-state sports betting legislation. So this is new territory from that standpoint, and I expect there will be a learning curve on all sides to determine the most responsible, effective way to approach these partnerships.”
Integrity Concerns
In the MLB-Polymarket deal, with the legality of prediction markets currently being debated across the country, there’s language built in that voids the partnership if courts were to rule that prediction markets violate state law. There are lawsuits in several U.S. states presently addressing the issue.
“The concept of addressing legal contingencies in a contract isn’t novel – there are parallels to the daily fantasy sports industry around 2015, when leagues and teams were establishing official sponsorships, despite attorney general allegations around the country that DFS constituted illegal gambling,” said Mishkin.
Stakes Are High
“But DFS was operating on a state-by-state basis, undertaking individual analyses based on each state’s respective gambling laws. If courts ruled against DFS, the operator could simply exit the state. But prediction market platforms are operating nationwide, on the basis that they are governed by federal law – not state law – and have argued in court that it would be impractical and unduly burdensome to geo-fence individual states. On that basis, the stakes are arguably higher.”
People’s concerns about integrity risks considering baseball’s history with gambling, and the fuzzy area between prediction markets and gambling, is a legitimate one.
MLB Season Opens This Week
“The reaction of ‘How could leagues be partnering with platforms offering what is effectively sports betting without a license?’ is understandable,” said Mishkin. “Because even though the platforms at issue here are not unregulated, they are operating outside of the regulatory framework that sports leagues and teams worked hard to help shape – a dynamic which, on its face, raises concerns.
But if leagues can effectively harness their leverage to secure contractual commitments to help address those concerns, and shape new federal regulations that would govern sports prediction markets – perhaps even in ways that are more robust and effective than what’s available under individual state laws – there could be an opportunity here to meaningfully improve the overall U.S. sports betting regulatory framework.”
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