Does Cousins Signing Impact the Odds of Mendoza Going No. 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders?
Posted on: April 2, 2026, 02:17h.
Last updated on: April 2, 2026, 02:22h.
- Media reporting said Kirk Cousins free agent deal with Las Vegas could work out to five years, $172 million
- Vegas Raiders expected to select Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza in the NFL Draft later this month
- Mendoza -20000 to go No. 1 in the draft to the Raiders
With Heisman Trophy winning-QB Fernando Mendoza the odds-on favourite to go to the Las Vegas Raiders first overall in the upcoming NFL draft, the Raiders today made a substantive move to bring in a mentor for him, if that’s the direction they end up taking.
Massive Mendoza Odds To Go No. 1 in Draft
Or, perhaps the Cousins signing is a signal the Raiders intend to go in another direction at the draft, fill another roster need, with that first overall pick. The NFL Draft is April 23-25 in Pittsburgh.
Oddsmakers don’t see it that way.
Here’s a snippet of what we are seeing today, odds that Mendoza goes No. 1 overall in the NFL draft: At DraftKings, -20000, at FanFuel, -20000, and at Caesars Sportsbook, at Caesars Sportsbook, -20000 (followed by Arvell Reese, at +6000).
Mendoza’s Mentorship
“The signing of Kirk Cousins was largely anticipated,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook. “The NFL is a copycat league, and we expected the Raiders to take a similar approach to what the Giants did last season by signing a veteran starting quarterback to help ease the transition for a young rookie quarterback moving from college to the NFL.
Jaxson Dart benefitted from learning under Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, which put him in a strong position to succeed when he took the field after five games. I expect the Raiders to follow a similar path by still drafting Mendoza and using this same approach.”
So let’s make the strong assumption that the Raiders draft Mendoza. The organization is laying down about as strong a foundation for Mendoza to thrive as one could possibly imagine.
Betting Lines
Cousins is a fabulous mentor, on a day-to-day basis, and will likely start the season as the Raiders’ starting quarterback. Then the Raiders have perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady, as part owner, whom the Boston-native Mendoza idolized growing up when Brady was winning Super Bowls with the New England Patriots.
The Raiders announced last week that Mike Sullivan was being brought in as the team’s new quarterbacks coach. Sullivan brings 21 years of coaching experience in the NFL, most recently as the QB coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers, from 2021-23, and senior offensive assistant in 2024. He also served as offensive coordinator for the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers over his career.
It’s tough to get carried away with a 3-14 team that fired its coach after the end of the season, brought in a young coach to replace him, Klint Kubiak, saw a trade with the Baltimore Ravens for Pro Bowl defensive end Maxx Crosby, that would have netted the Raiders a second first round pick this April (plus another first round pick in 2027), fall through at the last second over concerns the Ravens had about the state of Crosby’s injured right knee. Casino.org’s Jason La Canfora made a direct reference to the possibility of the Raiders signing Cousins in his Crosby follow-up story last month.
Bettors Liking the Raider Moves
Bettors are seeing it differently, especially after an active free agent signing period that saw the Vegas Raiders make some key signings, led by centre Tyler Linderbaum’s three-year, $81 million offer. The Raiders also signed fellow offensive lineman Spencer Burford to a one-year deal. They also added linebackers Quay Walker (three years, $40.5 million), Nakobe Dean (three years, $36 million) and edge defender Kwity Paye (three years, $48 million).
“The Raiders have generated a lot of engagement and excitement from bettors this offseason,” said Feazel. “Between their offseason moves and the decision to retain their star defensive player, Maxx Crosby, there is growing belief in this team will have success this season.
“We have seen the vast majority of bets come in on the Raiders to go over their win total of 5.5. As a result, the price has moved from -120 on the over to -150. We have also adjusted their odds to make the playoffs, moving them from 6/1 down to +550. While their overall season outlook has improved, we have not made any changes to their AFC or Super Bowl odds at this time.”
According to BetMGM: Most bet overs (tickets) so far are the New York Giants (7.5), Raiders (5.5) and the Minnesota Vikings (8.5).
$20 Million Contract
Cousins is another great roster add. As reported first by Adam Schefter at ESPN, the contract will pay Cousins $20 million in guaranteed money this season, and includes a club option for two years at $80 million, and could be worth $172 million over five years. That’s a helluva commitment for a 37-year-old mentor.
Indiana had a pro day yesterday, with Kubiak and Raiders general manager John Spytek in attendance, and Mendoza reportedly impressed everyone with his play, with Kubiak telling reporters a perfect world is not to have a rookie like Mendoza starting on Day 1. Let him mature a bit, with comparisons to Aaron Rodgers, who got drafted by the Green Bay Packers, then sat behind Brett Favre for three seasons.
Last season, Cousins was playing for the Atlanta Falcons, who drafted Michael Penix Jr. after signing Cousins. Cousins was said to be surprised at that. Obviously there will be no surprises with the Raiders this time out, with the likelihood the team will draft Mendoza.
Cousins was drafted by Washington in 2012, and has thrown for 44,700 yards over his career, a 66.7% career completion percentage, 298 touchdowns, 174 games played, and has a career passer thing of 96.8. In 10 games with the Falcons last season he threw for 1,721 yards and 10 TDs.
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