Kalshi Beating DraftKings Pricing on Some NFL Games, Says Bear Cave
Posted on: September 18, 2025, 12:24h.
Last updated on: September 18, 2025, 12:42h.
- Kalshi shows better pricing than DraftKings in some NFL markets
- Research emerges after analysts said Kalshi lagged sportsbook rivals in week one NFL pricing
- Kalshi advantage is on a game-by-game basis, not uniform across entire NFL slate
In what could be problematic for DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and other traditional sportsbook operators, prediction markets behemoth Kalshi is making some strides when it comes to NFL pricing.
In a report out Tuesday, Edwin Dorsey, editor and founder of The Bear Cave newsletter, said that he spent $49.95 to buy 115 “yes” contracts on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football” at 43 cents per contract plus a 50-cent fee to Kalshi. He placed a $50 moneyline bet on Tampa Bay on DraftKings as well. The Bucs won and Dorsey collected $115 from Kalshi and $107 from DraftKings. He also compared pricing on the two platforms for all of this Sunday’s NFL games.
On Tuesday evening, The Bear Cave reviewed prices for all upcoming Sunday NFL games and found in many cases Kalshi offered better odds than DraftKings. For example, for the Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, DraftKings will pay $157.50 for a $50 bet on the underdog Giants, while the Kalshi market offers $170, after fees, for the same bet,” observes The Bear Cave Editor.
Dorsey isn’t a short seller and he doesn’t take positions in the stocks mentioned in his newsletter. The report featuring the DraftKings/Kalshi comparison didn’t feature overtly negative commentary on the sportsbook operator, but notes the derivatives exchange’s move into football parlays and player propositions could be a source of concern for DraftKings because those are profitable wagers for gaming companies.
Kalshi Making NFL Pricing Strides
In a brief email exchange with Casino.org, Dorsey said he ran the DraftKings/Kalshi analysis based on the odds the former was offering in New York City. That’s noteworthy because New York is by far the largest sports betting market in the US.
Casino.org asked Dorsey if his analysis was confined to underdogs (the example games cited in the report didn’t include “chalk”) and he points out that on an “anecdotal” basis, Kalshi is showing more favorable pricing on favorites, too — relevant because most retail bettors embrace favorites over dogs.
The Bear Cave research is worth acknowledging for another reason: it was published 10 days after a sell-side analyst reported that in NFL week one, DraftKings and FanDuel offered customers superior pricing relative to Kalshi. Translation: in a short amount of time, Kalshi is improving its NFL pricing, enabling better competition with sportsbook rivals.
“The Bear Cave expects Kalshi’s value proposition to improve over time because its transaction fees may come down as the platform matures and the platform is actively exploring sub-penny pricing, which will allow for even smaller bid-ask spreads,” said Dorsey in the report.
Hope Not Lost for DraftKings
Football is the most wagered on sport in the US, and while there’s evidence the first two weeks of the 2025 NFL campaign haven’t been kind to sportsbook operators, DraftKings and others remain credible, if not superior competitors to the likes of Kalshi.
Dorsey observes that in his analysis of 14 Sunday, September 21 NFL games, Kalshi has a pricing advantage in eight of those tilts compared to six for DraftKings. He also acknowledged that a recent, premade NFL parlay constructed by Kalshi attracted just $12K in trading volume.
The issue with parlays on prediction markets is that they require the counterparty to put up large amounts of capital for relatively small payouts,” he notes.
Kalshi has recently come under fire for allowing “whales” and professional investors to trade on the platform for free while charging fees to smaller-stakes clients. There’s also speculation that the company’s market-making unit is trading against retail customers, potentially making it harder for those market participants to win.
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