Dramatic AL East Division Race Leads to Sharp Adjustment in Betting Odds
Posted on: September 25, 2025, 03:05h.
Last updated on: September 25, 2025, 03:05h.
- Blue Jays’ AL East division odds go from -5000 to -115 in one week
- Jays’ -114 betting favourites tonight versus Red Sox
On the Toronto sports front this morning, panic has set in, as the formerly first place Blue Jays have seen their American League East divisional lead whittled down to zero.
Blue Jays Dropping Like An Anchor
The Jays have lost six of their last ten. The final game of a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox goes tonight. In the biggest game of the season, they are tossing out Louis Varland to start – a relief pitcher.
The Jays’ bats have gone silent. The Red Sox pummelled the Jays’ 7-1 last night, after beating them 4-1 Tuesday night. The Jays had three hits that game, four hits last night. Max Scherzer again struggled in the first inning last night, for the second start in a row, which amplifies questions about where their starting staff really sits.
Shane Bieber’s next start got pushed back a day which has sparked chatter about his Tommy John-repaired elbow. Jose Berrios is in a mental funk, after having been banished to the bullpen. Chris Bassitt is out with back issues.
Odds Tighten for AL East Title
The Yankees, after pounding the lowly White Sox 8-1 last night, finish off that series tonight in New York with 17-9 Carlos Rodon up against 7-10 Davis Martin. ESPN BET has the Yankees -310 on the moneyline this morning, the White Sox +250.
The Yankees and Blue Jays are tied for the AL East title this morning. In the event of a tie at the end of the season on Sunday the Jays win because they own the tiebreaker edge over New York.
Jays Start Relief Pitcher Tonight Versus Red Sox
The Jays have made the playoffs, but unless they turn it around fast they’re going to lose the AL East title, which means they lose the bye into the ALDS (plus the opportunity to rest everyone in the lineup) and will instead play a best-of-three wildcard series.
So, you get the point – nerves are frayed, going into that 7 p.m. EST game tonight against the Red Sox, who are starting 11-8 Brayan Bello.
BetMGM “Sharply” Adjust Odds
Last week, at BetMGM, the Jays were -5000 to win the Al East, the Yankees +2200. Yesterday, before the Boston beatdown last night, the Jays were -325, the Yanks +240. This morning – Jays -115, Yankees -115. After tonight, the Jays finish their series with three at home versus the Rays. The Yankees finished their season hosting the Orioles. Advantage Yankees.
Jays’ manager John Schneider last night was saying the sky wasn’t falling.
Actually, it is, and the sportsbooks are reflecting that.
Vladdy Gets Tossed
“We’ve had to adjust the division odds sharply with the Yankees surging and the Blue Jays stumbling down the stretch. More than 70% of money is on New York to win the AL East in the last week,” said Halvor Egeland, Trading Manager, BetMGM.
Jays’ Vlad Guerrero Jr. got tossed arguing balls and strikes last night, not a good look for a team circling the bowl.
At Caesars Sportsbook, the Yankees to win the division on Sunday was +475. Before yesterday’s games it was +230. Currently it’s a pick’em -110 either way.
“We’ve received a decent amount of action on the Yanks Divisional Price yesterday, likely due to the perception that they have a relatively easy remaining schedule. With the Blue Jays still holding the tiebreaker, it should be a fun finish!” said Matt Torchia from the Caesars Sportsbook team.
DraftKings’ Johnny Avello: Yankees Heavily Bet
According to DraftKings‘ Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations Johnny Avello, if this was the Kansas City Royals, making a move against the Detroit Tigers, they’re going to make adjustments.
“This is the Yankees, a team that is heavily watched, heavily bet, throughout the year. The Blue Jays were -240 just a couple of weeks back, and now all of a sudden the Yankees are making this move on them, and we’re certainly getting some Yankees money,” he said.
Is the line movement more pessimism about the Jays or optimism about the Yankees?
“It’s a combination of both,” said Avello. “It’s a bet against and it’s a bet for. The feeling on the Yankees this year was that they probably didn’t have the horses to get it done. It was a team that had, of course, a couple of really top, elite players, but they also had some guys that were just kind of placeholders for the year. But the way they’re playing now, they have one of the better road records in baseball.”
If the Jays can win three out of the next four, Avello feels they’re still in a good spot to win the division, adding he doesn’t see the Orioles winning more than one game in their weekend series with the Yankees.
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