DraftKings Investor Could Spark the Stock, Says Analyst
Posted on: March 1, 2026, 07:00h.
Last updated on: February 28, 2026, 08:34h.
- DraftKings holds its investor on Monday
- The stock is down 44.22% over the past year and 30.82% year-to-date
- Analyst says prediction markets commentary could be catalyst for shares
With the stock down nearly 31% since the start of the year, Monday’s investor day is must-watch theater for DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) shareholders. One analyst believes the event could provide a jolt to the stock.
In a new report to clients, Jefferies analyst David Katz notes points of emphasis at DraftKings’ investor day are likely to include the three-year core business outlook as well as updates on the operator’s prediction markets plans. The company recently entered that space with its DraftKings Predictions offering and some investors are pondering the expenditures needed to compete with incumbents such as Kalshi and Polymarket as well as a broadening field of rivals.
At the investor event, the gaming company could also provide more clarity around the 2026 financial outlook it issued last month – guidance that disappointed investors.
Our $6.89 billion is at the top end of DKNG’s FY26 revenue guide of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion (though in-line with consensus), given that management excluded any revenue from Prediction Markets this year, while we and the Street are including some,” observes Katz. “For FY26 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), our $811 million estimate is modestly below consensus of $821 million, though in-line with the midpoint of current guidance of $700 million to $900 million.”
The analyst also points out DraftKings could provide color around Maine iGaming and Alberta, Canada sports betting launches.
Pondering Prediction Market Takes
DraftKings guided to $50 million to $200 million in prediction markets spending this year, underscoring the competitive intensity of that young industry. It could be a natural evolution because the operator has long been one of the most tech-centric wagering entities.
Katz says investor day commentary around prediction markets could include chatter on total addressable market, marketing spending, product development, and revenue, indicating the event could highlight a potentially wide range of outcomes for DraftKings Predictions.
One area investors are likely to want clarity on is the operators plans for internal market making, which could create efficiencies and possibly some incremental revenue.
“A key point in DKNG’s strategy is market making, which could lead to a wide range of outcomes,” adds Katz. “We believe that DKNG intends to act as a market maker on DraftKings Predict and on competitors’ designated contract markets, which brings to bear the company’s risk management capabilities, which we expect to be a discussion point as well.”
Is DraftKings Stock Finally Ready to Turn?
The investor day arrives soon after DraftKings announced layoffs affecting up to 5% of its workforce aimed at saving as much as $30 million annually.
That added to a sour stretch in which the company and competitors such as Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) have been plagued by customer-friendly outcomes and market participants fretting about threats from yes/no exchanges. Still, Katz likes the setup in the stock and rates it a “buy” with a $46 price target. He also notes prediction markets aren’t denting DraftKings’ core business.
“Note that the alternative data continues to support management commentary that impact to market share from the advent of predictions has been de minimis,” concludes the analyst. “Our view is that they set-up is now considerably more positive given the catalyst path, estimate composition and 11X 2027E EBITDA of $1.1 billion.”
No comments yet