DraftKings, Flutter Poised for Q4 Earnings Beat on Improving Hold

Posted on: January 16, 2026, 11:56h. 

Last updated on: January 16, 2026, 12:14h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • NFL hold rates bounced back in November and December
  • Analyst says that’s not reflected in consensus forecasts
  • Prediction markets aren’t product competitive with sportsbooks

Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), the two largest US sportsbook operators, could top fourth-quarter earnings estimates as NFL hold materially improved in the last two months of the quarter.

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The Flutter logo. The FanDuel owner and rival DraftKings could report strong fourth-quarter results on improved NFL hold. (Image: Flutter Entertainment)

That’s the take of Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon, who in a new report to clients, notes that when the gaming companies provided guidance for the last three months of 2025, the implied hold rate for Flutter was 11% and 8.5% for DraftKings. Beynon notes an acceleration in NFL hold in November and December paints rosier pictures for DraftKings and the FanDuel owner.

During the last two months of 4Q, FLUT/DKNG achieved hold rates of 14%/10%, resulting in 4Q hold of 12%/9% (+119/66bps from our estimated implied hold in guidance),” says the analyst.

He adds that the improved hold outlook could result in an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) boost of $100 million to $200 million for Flutter, and $50 million to $100 million for DraftKings.

Why Improved Hold Estimates Matter for DraftKings, Flutter

Last year, shares of DraftKings and Flutter struggled after the operators downwardly revised quarterly and annual guidance on the back of another batch of customer-friendly outcomes on NFL games, confirming that improved football hold is material for these companies and their shareholders.

“Low NFL hold to start the season has been (or should have been) a bigger driver of stock performance, in our view,” says Beynon. “At 4Q lows, DKNG was ~40% off Aug highs (when 4Q25 consensus EBITDA was ~40% higher). NFL hold rates rebounded dramatically in Nov/Dec, while Online stocks also rebounded at more subdued levels.”

The analyst points out that current consensus estimates don’t adequately reflect the November/December hold improvement, indicating that when the operators make that data official, it could spark the stocks to the upside.

DraftKings is expected to deliver fourth-quarter results on February 12, while Flutter steps into the earnings confessional on February 26.

Prediction Markets Not the Issue

Initially, the 2025 slides incurred by the two gaming stocks were blamed on the rise of prediction markets, but that thesis was proven inaccurate. Beynon reiterated the view that event contract purveyors pose less of a competitive threat to regulated sportsbooks than some investors believe.

Our view is unchanged from Day 1 — Predictions’ sports product is not competitive with online sports betting, and most volume is from non-legal sports betting states, creating incremental EBITDA opportunities for DKNG/FLUT,” observes Beynon.

That view is fortified by prediction markets’ pricing woes on sports event contracts and data indicating that the industry has stolen just 5% of legal sportsbook handle.