Donald Trump Getting Better Odds with Sports Books Than with Polls, But Hillary Clinton Looks Like a Winner

Posted on: February 29, 2016, 02:25h. 

Last updated on: February 29, 2016, 02:26h.

Casino.org Staff Writer Read More

Expertise: Commercial Gaming.

Donald Trump may be the topic of everybody’s water cooler conversations these days, but if you ask die-hard gamblers, Hillary Clinton is more likely to become our next commander-in chief.

According to the latest data at Paddy Power Betfair, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the not-so-surprising favorites to win their party nominations. What is more surprising, though, is how heavily chosen the frontrunners are being wagered on by gamblers.

Clinton is given an 87 percent chance of winning the Democratic ticket, while Trump is holding odds of better than seven in 10. Compare that to their respective Real Clear Politics polling averages of 47.2 and 33.3 percent respectively, and it’s easy to see those willing to put their money where their mouths are believe the 2016 presidential primary campaigns are a done deal.

Trump Pays

As is the case with most things The Donald touches, Trump’s campaign to replace President Barack Obama and become the 45th commander-in-chief has become a rather prosperous success story.

Early believers in the Trump campaign will be rewarded handsomely come the Republican Party’s official endorsement of the billionaire businessman. Once considered a long shot at best, Trump’s path to the nomination is now seemingly paved in gold.

When the billionaire declared his candidacy in June, oddsmakers had him around 100/1 to win the GOP race. Today, Paddy Power has him listed at 1/5, meaning a $100 wager would return just $20 should Trump win the nomination.

Trump’s decisive victory in New Hampshire, where he won 35.3 percent of the vote, was the straw that broke the bookmaker’s back.

“This might be bad news for the Republican Party, but it’s not much better for us bookmakers who are facing some huge payouts,” Ladbrokes head political bookie, Matthew Shaddick, told Reuters this month. 

Clinton Trumps Trump

According to the gamblers, should the general election come down to Clinton versus Trump (as all the polls indicate), Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the next president of the United States and the first woman elected to the office.

The current line between the two has Clinton as the substantial favorite. A $100 bet on Clinton to win the presidency would pay $172.73, while the same bet on Trump would pay $350.

Throw in the now notorious email scandal and the controversy over what happened in Benghazi, not to mention Trump’s ability to overcome seemingly insurmountable odds, and the Clinton wager might not seem worth the risk to some.

“You might be better served to just hold onto your money if you’re considering getting some skin in the political game,” Fortune journalist Chris Morris opined this week in an article on this topic.

Though online gambling is prohibited in all but three states and betting on political outcomes is quasi-legal at best, untold millions will be wagered on the 2016 presidential outcome. Prediction market websites, such as the formerly popular Intrade, cater to those looking to make a financial stake in the game of politics.

PredictIt is now the leading platform for gambling on governmental affairs in the United States. Customers are able to purchase and sell shares of potential outcomes at prices based on the event’s probability.

As of Monday, Clinton holds a 59 percent chance of becoming the next US president on that site. Trump is at 39 percent, Florida Senator Marco Rubio (R) is at nine percent, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (D) comes in at seven percent.