A Lot on the Line for Betting Underdog Pereira at UFC 320
Posted on: October 4, 2025, 09:34h.
Last updated on: October 4, 2025, 09:37h.
It’s a star-studded UFC 320 event tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with a double title fight headliner, with light heavyweight title holder Magomed Ankalaev versus No.1-ranked Alex Pereira the most intriguing.
Pereira the Underdog
Pereira gets a shot at reclaiming his belt, and some revenge, after the Russian beat him in a unanimous decision last March at UFC 313.
The Georgian, Merab Dvalishvili defends his bantamweight title against American Cory Sandhagen in the other title fight.
BetMGM has Pereira as the underdog at +210, Ankalaev at -275, with this fight as the most popular (tickets), followed by Dvalishvili (-425) and Sandhagen (+310), the Khalil Rountree Jr. (+165) versus Jiri Prochazka (-200), Joo Sang Yoo (+135) versus Daniel Santos (-165) in a catchweight bout in the prelims, then Josh Emmett (+360) versus Youssef Zalal (-500), back on the main card, in a featherweight bout.
Revenge After UFC 313 Loss
Most bet props (tickets) at BetMGM are Pereira by KO/TKO or DQ +300, Pereira by Decision/Technical Decision +900, Rountree by KO/TKO or DQ +300, Dvalishvili by Submission +700, Sandhagen by Submission +2500.
Mark Collier, a trader with BetVictor, said a lot of experts expected Pereira to outgun Ankalaev at UFC 313 and outgun him quickly.
Didn’t happen.
Dvalishvili Big Betting Favourite
“Bout betting that night was -138 Alex with the Over 2.5 line a pick’em bet, almost 7 months later, we see Alex a +175 dog with the pick’em bet for Total Rounds being 4.5,” he said. “This is nothing but a testament to the Ankalaev performance that night with experts now unsurprisingly envisaging another Magomed 5-round masterclass.
“Predictable betting is somewhat an occupational hazard in our line of work but it’s also another thing we can exploit or take advantage of. Do I expect an Ankalaev Decision again? Personally, I think it goes the other way. Hear me out, this is surely Pereira’s last real chance at Light Heavyweight with failure on Saturday likely forcing his hand and making him jump up to Heavyweight. The last six months after recovery should be about him neutralising Magomed Ankalaev but I really don’t see how he can sustain this.
Pereira’s Last Big Chance
“Magomed maybe didn’t have full success in every round in March but he knows how to outmanoeuvre Alex now so if Pereira wants to get the job done, he needs to find a way of getting the KO/TKO and early. The longer this fight goes on, then it goes in favour of Ankalaev. This isn’t a bold observation with the AP KO/TKO line being around +300 in Vegas but I’d be taking this line instead of Pereira to win the Bout.
“To summarise – the make or break feel to the bout will likely make Alex Pereira a more dangerous opponent.”
Collier likes Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ, at +210 this morning.
Sandhagen a Big Underdog
Collier questioned why No. 4 ranked Sandhagen has been given a shot, with the more deserving Petr Yan (No. 3 ranked) and Umar Nurmagomedov (No. 2 ranked) in the 135-pound division.
“I really don’t see how Sandhagen can lay a glove on Merab in this one,” he said. “I always try to find justification for alternative scenarios in significant bouts or title fights but in a very similar fashion to how Sandhagen lost to Aljamain Sterling over five years ago, I can see Dvalishvili making very short work of Cory and bagging an early Submission.
“All roads lead to a Merab Decision Win with 12 out of his 15 previous UFC bouts ending in Decision (three of these being over five rounds) but a MD Decision is trading around 1/2 which I can’t take at that price.”
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