Sean Penn’s One Battle After Another Performance an Oscars Betting Favourite

Posted on: March 6, 2026, 08:32h. 

Last updated on: March 6, 2026, 09:46h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • Hollywood veteran in the Oscars driver’s seat for his performance as Col. Lockjaw
  • One Battle After Another the overwhelming betting favourite for Best Picture
  • Michael B. Jordan and Timothee Chalamet going head to head for Best Actor, Jessie Buckley huge odds favourite for Best Actress

One of the motion picture industry’s great actors is the betting favourite to score Best Supporting Actor honours at the Oscars, on March 15, according to BetMGM.

Benicio del Toro left, and Sean Penn attend the world premiere of Warner Bros. Pictures’ “One Battle After Another” at TCL Chinese Theatre in September in Hollywood, California. (Image: Amy Sussman/Getty Images)

Oscars Betting

BetMGM is offering up a full sked of Oscar offers for bettors in Ontario and a handful of U.S. states.

Those who have seen Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another were drawn in by Sean Penn’s portrayal of Col. Steven J. Lockjaw, in a movie that also features acting stalwarts and past Oscar winners Leonardo DiCaprio and Benicio Del Toro.

Only Penn could convey a movie character that embodied a menace while at the same time making the audience laugh their asses off when he’s on screen. Those who saw the film couldn’t keep their eyes off him. And there are only a handful of actors who could have pulled off that role and impacted Anderson’s movie the way he did.

Penn Leading the Best Supporting Actor Category

At BetMGM, Penn is -350 to walk away with Best Supporting Actor, followed by Stellan Skarsgard, up for his role in Sentimental Value. He’s at +400. There’s sentimental value around Skarsgard, one of the industry’s great character actors, going back to Good Will Hunting in 1997. Skarsgard is generating 41.4% of tickets and 30.5% of handle and it could come down to rewarding Skarsgard for a great career.

Delroy Lindo is nominated for Sinners, set for a big night Sunday, and is at +900 in the Best Supporting Actor category. Penn’s partner in One Battle After Another, Benicio Del Toro, is +1200, followed by Jacob Elordi’s first Oscar nomination for Frankenstein.

Betting on the Oscars via BetMGM is allowed in Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Montana, as well as Ontario. Entertainment and culture betting is wide open on the prediction markets, where people buy “yes” or “no” shares on outcomes, with the price reflecting crowd wisdom.

Prediction Markets

This morning, a “yes” on Penn for Best Supporting Actor is .74 on Polymarket, on $346,407 volume. Skarsgard is .17, generating $2.9 million in volume, though.

Also at BetMGM, One Battle After Another is -600, getting 14% of tickets, and 48.9% of handle. Anderson is the whopping betting favourite for Best Director, at -5000. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme (-135) and Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (+150) are going head to head for Best Actor (18.2% of tickets, and 39.2% of handle for Chalamet, 22.7% and 18.9% for Jordan).

Buckley Betting Favourite for Best Actress

Jessie Buckley is the strong betting favourite (-5000) for Hamnet (97.7% of handle) for Best Actress. Amy Madigan is the odds favourite at +115 for Best Supporting Actress, for her role in Weapons (30.4% of tickets at BetMGM, 53.8% of handle).

A “yes” for Anderson for Best Director is .93 on Polymarket ($565,769 volume), .96 for Buckley this morning ($229,081 volume), and .53 for Chalamet ($801,006 volume).

“These markets are traded like award markets in sports, MVP for example,” said John Ewing, a BetMGM spokesperson. “There are movies (or players) that are expected to perform well and be top candidates for awards. Odds adjust based on results from the award shows (or performance on the field/court) that happen before the Oscars.”