UFC 316: Underdog Sean O’Malley is Attracting Lots of Money

Posted on: May 29, 2025, 11:24h. 

Last updated on: May 29, 2025, 12:03h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • DraftKings is looking at record handle on the UFC this summer
  • Money is heading to Sean O’Malley in his fight against Merab Dvalishvili fight on June 7
  • Oddsmakers are also liking Ilia Topuria in UFC 317

The UFC has a jam-packed calendar for June, led by two main PPV events and three smaller-scale UFC Fight Night events, but don’t tell Johnny Avello of DraftKings there’s bettor fatigue with the mixed martial arts promotion company.

Ilia Topuria headlines UFC 317 in June in a lightweight title bout against Charles Oliveira. (Image: Shutterstock)

Quite the opposite, said Avello, the Sports Betting Hall of Fame member, Las Vegas bookmaker, and DraftKings’ race & sportsbook director.

“We’re not seeing fatigue,” he said. “This all started back during COVID. That’s when UFC said we’re just going to fill our slate because there’s not a lot of events going on. So, we’re going to get a lot of eyes on this product. UFC has been a good product; we’re seeing growth in it. We’re projecting a bigger handle this year than we did last year. And we just see all systems go.”

Dvalishvili Betting Favourite

Everything kicks off June 7 with UFC 316 at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.

“[That fight] kicks off six weeks of a great summer of UFC fighting,” Avello said. “It’s going to be a blockbuster summer in terms of handle on these fights.”

The main card for UFC 316 at the Prudential Center is a bantamweight title bout between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley, a rematch from last September, with Dvalishvili the current champ. Dvalishvili took that last matchup by a unanimous decision (the Georgian landed 214 total strikes, to O’Malley’s 49).

O’Malley is the solid underdog on the UFC betting odds front at DraftKings for June 7, at +250. Dvalishvili is -310.

“They’re betting O’Malley in the rematch,” Avello said. “And when we look at the third fight, that’s no surprise that they’re betting him because we had a pretty good liability on O’Malley as the favorite in the first one. 

As far as who’s taking it, everybody’s jumping on the +250. There are reasons to bet O’Malley.”

Avello referenced O’Malley’s comments about how the lights at the Las Vegas Sphere in September made it tough to land shots and cost him the fight, something Dvalishvili has brushed off.

Money is on O’Malley

“We like the position we’re in,” Avello said. “We don’t mind them [bettors] taking the dog there.”

The June 7 card also features a women’s bantamweight title bout between Julianna Pena (current champion, at +455) and Kayla Harrison (-625).

Then there’s UFC 317 in Las Vegas on June 28 at T-Mobile Arena, led by Ilia Topuria versus Charles Oliveira in a lightweight title bout, vacated when Islam Makhachev, the pound-for-pound men’s top-ranked UFC fighter, vacated his lightweight title to move up to welterweight in pursuit of a second belt against Jack Della Maddalena. 

No sport balances sensationalism, WWE-style, character-driven promotion, and controversy like the UFC, and when you balance that with the sheer athleticism and mental strength required to compete at a high level, that’s what consistently brings in the viewing audience.

Sharps Impacting the Line

“If you’re watching a game, it’s great entertainment. Sports betting is great entertainment,” Avello said. “It’s nice to have a wager … only now, watch the game and bet prematch, or bet during the match, during each game. So, as things change during the game, if you got a feel of how the games going, you can actually put down a wager throughout the entire event.”

In terms of setting odds on UFC fight, Avello said a lot of the work comes down to judging where the fighter is in their career: some guys are on the way up, some are on the way down – how long they’ve been fighting, skill set.

Public Perception vs. Fighter Data

“There’s quite a bit that goes into it,” said Avello. “We’ve got a team that does follow this exclusively, whether it’s UFC or boxing, and that team does a really good job of getting those opening numbers up and getting them pretty correct.

“Once that initial line is established and put up, then it’s up to the general public, the sharps [professional bettors], whoever’s wagering to put their opinion into it. Of course, if you’ve got sharp bettors betting, the line will move accordingly. And then sometimes, once we get to a point where we feel it’s pretty stable and we’re getting action on both sides, then it kind of holds at that number.”