Accel Entertainment Stock Soars as Investors Bet on Chicago VGT Spark
Posted on: March 4, 2026, 01:38h.
Last updated on: March 4, 2026, 01:38h.
- Company believes Chicago-area VGTs could be online before the end of 2026
- Analysts view that as a catalyst for the stock
- One analyst says Chicago VGTs could have higher margins and faster payback periods than Accel’s existing Illinois business
In late trading, shares of Accel Entertainment (NYSE: ACEL) are higher by more than 18% on volume that’s 75% above the daily average after the company issued encouraging commentary regarding video gaming terminals (VGTs) in the Chicago market.
In conjunction with the release of its fourth-quarter and 2025 results, the distributed gaming operator made bullish comments on the pace of the VGT situation in the third-largest US city. In a bid to boost tax receipts, policymakers in the Windy City are mulling a plan to legalize VGTs, which the City Council Office of Financial Analysis (COFA) estimates would generate $64 million in yearly revenue.
We are excited by and are closely monitoring developments in Chicago, following public announcements regarding the introduction of video gaming terminals in licensed establishments,” said Accel Chairman and CEO Andrew Rubenstein on a conference call with analysts. “As the leading operator in Illinois, we believe Accel is uniquely positioned to participate meaningfully.”
Accel is already established in Illinois with some estimates indicating the state represents as much as 75% of its revenue. That footprint and familiarity with businesses and regulators could smooth the process of accelerating the Chicago VGT rollout.
Why Chicago Could Propel Accel Entertainment Stock
On the conference call, Accel COO and President Mark Phelan said Chicago VGTs could go live in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of 2027, depending upon how rapidly the Illinois Gaming Board (IGB) processes application.
Apparently, investors like that timeline because if it comes in on the shorter end, Accel could potentially recognize some profits and revenue from Chicago VGT operations as soon as this year. Analysts are constructive on that estimate, too.
“Applying ACEL’s 30% Illinois market share equates to 390 new locations. Given city size of locations versus suburban ones, we assume 4 games versus the allowable 6,” said Texas Capital analyst David Bain in a note to clients. “We also assume $180 win per day, per machine, versus ACEL’s ~$158 in other Illinois counties (4Q25 average), totaling $102.5M on an annualized run-rate exiting 2027E from the new market.”
Bain also points out that in Chicago, Accel’s “payback period could be faster (and margins higher)” than the operator’s established Illinois operations. He rates the stock a “buy” with a $17 price target implying upside of 30.7% from where the shares trade at this writing.
Accel Entertainment Stock Has Upside Levers
Accel’s prosaic business model — it distributes video gaming terminals (VGTs) in businesses such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, truck stops, and grocery stores — may be appealing at a time when some investors are looking to mitigate risk while still capturing growth.
Additionally, the gaming equity could be further boosted by widening market breadth as investors move away from mega-cap tech stocks and into small-cap value fare. Indeed, Accel has value hallmarks.
“We believe ACEL’s hyper-local, mostly variable-cost operations leave it better hedged against an economic downturn or in periods of geopolitical uncertainty than most regional casinos,” concludes Bain. “Further, we believe distributed gaming offers more profitable geographic expansion opportunities than most casino companies and its likely upcoming Chicago roll-out is not in estimates/valuation. Despite this, ACEL trades at a 23% EV/EBITDA discount to regional casinos.”
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