More Obvious Scenario of Dvalishvili Decision Win in UFC 316 Unpopular With Bettors
Posted on: June 6, 2025, 09:34h.
Last updated on: June 6, 2025, 09:44h.
- Dvalishvili versus O’Malley main event at UFC 316
- Harrison big odds favourite in women’s bantamweight bout
- O’Malley coming off hip surgery
Tomorrow night it gets real between Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) and Sean O’Malley (18-2-0), as the two fighters step into the Octagon for a bantamweight title bout at UFC 316 (10 p.m. EST), a rematch from their fight at UFC 306 at the Las Vegas Sphere last September.
O’Malley Coming Off Injury
Dvalishvili won the bout by unanimous decision. O’Malley seemed hesitant and fell behind early. Was the hip injury he had going into that fight, which he has since had surgery to correct, holding him back? That was just O’Malley’s second defeat of his pro MMA career. Dvalishvili is a machine, having defended his title earlier this year against Umar Nurmagomedov.
O’Malley is healthy, quit weed and social media, has a son now, and comes into the fight a different man.
Dvalishvili Betting Favourite
Not too surprising to see money for Suga [O’Malley], even though the bout price is holding firm at around +200 – +220, we are seeing steady business here,” said Mark Collier, a trader with BetVictor. “We did open his KO/TKO at +600, which has now crept in to +400. The most obvious scenario of another Merab five round decision win is not proving too popular however at -162. The value isn’t really there.”
Dvalishvili is the betting favourite at BetMGM, at -275, generating just 7% of bets and 9% of handle, with the underdog O’Malley at +225 generating 93% and 91%, respectively. The Georgian is -275 at BetVictor, while O’Malley is +220.
O’Malley by KO Most Bet Prop
Most bet (tickets) props so far: O’Malley by KO/TKO or DQ +450, O’Malley by Decision/Technical Decision +600, Dvalishvili by Submission +800, and O’Malley by Submission +2500.
At ESPN BET, 69.1% of bets and 73.9% of handle are on O’Malley Moneyline (+230). O’Malley by KO (+400) is the most bet method of victory (43% of MOV bets and 50.5% of MOV handle).
Also on the card at UFC 316 is another bantamweight title fight, the other main event – Julianna Pena versus Kayla Harrison (18-1-0, coming off a unanimous decision win over Ketlen Vieira at UFC 307 last October). Pena holds the title (13-5-0, coming off a split decision title win over Raquel Pennington at UFC 307).
Due to the lobsided nature of the bout betting for this one, aka the -800 double gold medal Olympian Kayla Harrison, most of the punter attention is on the other areas of the main card,” Collier said.
Value on Harrison by Decision
“However, there must be some value on Harrison by decision at +200 or even a safer option of the YES distance at +168. Kayla Harrison inability to take out Ketlen Vieira back in October makes me wonder if we could see a repeat over five rounds against an arguably more durable and seasoned fighter in Julianna Pena.”
Harrison is -750 at BetMGM (11% of bets, 63% of handle), while Pena is at +525 (89% and 37%, respectively). At BetVictor, it’s Harrison -800, Pena +500.
Also on the main card tomorrow is Kelvin Gastelum (20-9-0, coming off a unanimous decision over Daniel Rodriguez at a UFC Fight Night a year ago) versus Joe Pyfer (13-3-0, coming off a first round KO over Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 303 last June) in a middleweight fight.
Mario Bautista (15-2-0, coming off a split decision win over Jose Aldo last October at UFC 307) takes on Patchy Mix (20-1-0, coming over from Bellator, considered one of the biggest additions to the UFC in years) in a bantamweight bout. Vicente Luque (23-10-1, coming off a win over Themba Gorimbo by first-round submission last December) versus Kevin Holland (27-13-0, last fought in March at UFC Fight Night, with a win over Gunnar Nelson, by unanimous decision) wraps up the main card tomorrow with a welterweight fight.
Lots of Money on Underdog Bautista
“One that really sticks out so far, is the backing for Mauro Bautista against UFC debutant Patchy Mix,” Collier said.
The recently signed Bellator star has been installed at around -200 favourite for this one, however there’s plenty of underdog money for Bautista coming off a solid win over Jose Aldo and looking to make it eight in a row. Only prop action for this one so far is Mix by Submission at +300 however this feels like a cover bet for Bautista backers.
“From a personal point of view, I like Vicente Luque to Win at +225 if we want an underdog pick. I prefer Luque’s ground game and think if we see three rounds, he could easily take a Decision Win.”
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