Trader: Ontario Sportsbooks Sweating Huge Jays’ Liability Right Now

Posted on: October 4, 2025, 07:45h. 

Last updated on: October 4, 2025, 07:45h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.
  • Canadians typically pour money on home teams
  • Potential mid 7-figure loss for Canadians sportsbooks
  • MLB Division Series kicks off on four fronts this afternoon

If there’s one thing Phill Gray knows from his days as Head of Trading Operations at Sports Interaction, with the Blue Jays about kick off the American League Division Series this afternoon against the Yankees, it’s that Canadian bettors back their teams like no other.

Aaron Judge of the Yankees during the fifth inning against the Red Sox in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium Wednesday. Judge leads his Yankees into Toronto this afternoon. Image by Ishika Samant/Getty Images.

Big Jays Liability

“There’s going to be a lot of Ontario books sweating a huge Jays liability right now,” he told Casino.org. Gray said he remembers the Raptors run to an NBA championship in 2019, and how that wiped out their book’s entire basketball profit for the season.

Gray said that MLB loss could be “mid 7 figures” for a book.

Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays in Game 1 this afternoon (4:08 p.m. EST), up against Luis Gill for the Yankees.

Jays Opened at +2000

“Canadian facing books face a steep challenge all season for NHL/NBA/MLB,” Gray said. “Leafs and Oilers/Raptors/Jays. The home betting public overwhelmingly back these teams’ night in and night out as well as in futures, doesn’t matter the pricing. So, it becomes a feast or famine for the most part in profit/loss.

“The Blue Jays consistent winning regular season hits hard on a game-by-game basis. Futures now come into play. With 94 wins the Jays went well over their opening projected total of 79.5, a big loss as the over was heavily backed. They opened at varying prices around +900 to take the AL East, again would have been a larger liability on them from the get-go and the payout at that price is substantial.”

Ohtani Starts Against Phillies

Toronto opened mostly around +2000 for the pennant and double that for the World Series. Easily 75 per cent of the action for these markets will be riding on them, Gray added. A Jays’ result for these books in Ontario would be a huge loss combined with riding their game liabilities all season.

“I sat through the same scenario with the Raptors in 2019. It’s easily potential mid 7-figure loss for a book this October as it was for us that spring with the Raptors,” he said.

Potential 7-Figure Loss

Today’s a full day on divisional series front. The Cubs (Matthew Boyd) play the Brewers (Freddy Peralta), at 2:08 p.m. EST, Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani) take on the Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez), at 6:38 p.m. EST, and the Tigers (Troy Melton) are in Seattle against the Mariners (George Kirby), at 8:38 p.m. EST.

“There is some good two-way money on the series,” said Eric Biggio, Lead Baseball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “We opened a little higher on the series price than I had initially thought, with the Yankees at -150. Bo Bichette’s day-to-day status, combined with the Yankees’ winning their last two elimination games versus the Red Sox, both factored in pushing the Yankees out as a bigger favorite.

“I personally think the Jays are live in the series, especially if they take advantage of home field with Kevin Gausman in Game 1 and Shane Bieber in Game 2.”

Big Money on Dodgers for World Series

Not surprisingly, money has come in on the Dodgers to not only win the series but also win the World Series.

“I’m sure we’ll wind up needing the Phillies in most games, as the Dodgers have been a public betting favorite most of the year,” said Biggio. “Christopher Sanchez has been underrated all year for the Phillies. If they hold serve with him in Game 1, I think they’ll pull off the small upset in the series.”

The Mariners are the biggest series favourite of the four Division Series matchups – at -180.

Recency Bias on Cubs

“On paper, they’ve got the better lineup and better pitching depth. So they are a deserved favorite in this matchup,” said Biggio. “We’ll probably need the Tigers in any game not started by Tarik Skubal in this series. 

“Not enough respect for the Brewers here? The No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs is only a -125 series favorite? There may be some recency bias on the Cubs, not sure. But I’ll be interested to see the way the bets come in on this one.”

In Canada, at NorthStar, Jays are a slight underdog at -129, the Yankees at +110. The Brewers are underdogs at -165, Cubs at +140; Phillies at -122, with the Dodgers at +105; and Mariners -225, Tigers at +185.

At BetMGM this morning, the Yankees are +105, the Jays -125; the Cubs +135, Brewers -161; the Dodgers +105, Phillies -125; Tigers +180, Mariners -222.