Bulk of the Money on Oliveira for UFC 317
Posted on: June 27, 2025, 02:35h.
Last updated on: June 27, 2025, 02:45h.
Finally, we’re here: Ilia Topuria (16-0), moving up from the featherweight division, steps into the Octagon for a lightweight title bout against Charles Oliveira (35-10-1) tomorrow night at UFC 317 in Las Vegas.
Topuria Odds Favourite
The fight at T-Mobile Arena gets going at 10 p.m. EST. Loved the weigh-in today, and pre-fight news conference yesterday – no shenanigans, just all business, calm and cool, Topuria coming in at 155 pounds, Oliveira 154.5. No hostility. Oliveira is one of the most respectful fighters in UFC.
Islam Makhachev vacated the lightweight title to move up to welterweight. Topuria is the big odds favourite at BetMGM, at -450 (Oliveira is +350). But check out where the money’s going – 90% of bets on Oliveira, 63% of handle.
Topuria had been critical of Makhachev for vacating his title, calling him a “hypocrite”, accusing him of running away, but he walked back those comments on Ariel Helwani’s show this week:
“I think he’s doing his thing. I don’t think he’s ducking me, to be honest. I would be lying to you if I told you that he’s ducking me. I think he’s tired of the weight cut. He wants a new challenge. He moved to the welterweight division. He feels and he thinks that he has a chance to become a double champion, and I think that this is all he’s trying to do.”
Money Going Charles’ Way
A trader from BetVictor echoed what BetMGM is seeing in an interview with Casino.org:
“All Charles’ money,” said Mark Collier. “Certainly for the bout that’s for sure. The Las Vegas line is holding prefer firm at 1/5 – 7/2 but no doubt, the Oliveira backing is because of the unpredictable style he has.”
Not a lot of love for Topuria.
“Figure maybe the change in division might have a bearing,” he said. “As champions go, I think he’s there to be knocked out.”
Johnny Avello Says It’s a Little Different at DraftKings
BetVictor has Topuria at -500, Oliveira at +350.
Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ race & sportsbook director, says handle there is 50-50, with Topuria seeing 61% of total bets, with Oliveira at 39%. DraftKings has Topuria at -455, Oliveira at +350.
At BetMGM, most bet props as of this afternoon: Oliveira by Submission +650, Oliveira by KO/TKO or DQ +1100, Topuria by KO/TKO or DQ -175, and Oliveira by Decision/Technical Decision +1400.
Alexandre Pantoja also takes on Kai Kara-France in a flyweight title bout on the main card.
“The Co-Main event not taken anything exciting but that’s not too surprising for a flyweight bout,” Collier said. “Personally I am a little disappointed we haven’t seen more action on the Dariush-Moicano (lightweight bout) but with bout betting so close, maybe it’s not that surprising. Only other really main action has come from the other flyweight bout on the main card with Joshua Van flipping the betting line and gone 4/5 favourite against Brandon Royval. Surely that one has a Split Decision all over it.”
BetVictor has Pantoja at -250, Kara-France at +190. The lightweight bout Collier references: Dariush +100, Moicano -125.
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