Sports Prediction Markets Revenue Potential is Massive, Says Prominent Gaming Consultancy
Posted on: November 20, 2025, 08:03h.
Last updated on: November 20, 2025, 09:43h.
Sports prediction markets are no longer playing a niche role in the US betting industry.
With industry leaders Kalshi and Polymarket striking deals with professional sports teams, daily fantasy sports companies, and more traditional derivatives market exchanges, sports prediction markets continue to go mainstream. Prediction markets’ sports offerings have fueled a surge in trading volume across the major platforms, with more than $30 billion in trades facilitated.
While trading volume is vastly different than traditional sports betting handle, or the total amount wagered, as volume refers to the amount of money used to facilitate all the shares bought and sold during a prediction market contract’s life, leading gaming analysts say the upside for prediction markets is nonetheless substantial.
Sports prediction markets offer contracts on the outcomes of games and players’ performances. Users buy and sell shares of outcomes, and winning shares are redeemed at $1. The operators make money in a variety of ways, including by charging trade commissions and account fees, and, at times, acting as the house by taking a contract position.
Prediction Markets Sports Contracts
Prediction markets gained legal footing by claiming that their online contracts are financial instruments. The companies obtained Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization licenses from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that agreed the platforms were offering futures.
Many disagree with the CFTC. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the CFTC, Michael Selig, was grilled on Capitol Hill on sports prediction markets. Selig, a cryptocurrency specialist who currently serves as chief counsel for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said he would refer to the courts.
CFTC rules prohibit event contracts related to gambling. But with Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., serving as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket, and Trump Media said to be exploring a play in the prediction markets space, the general thinking around DC is that sports prediction markets are here to stay.
Lofty Projections
Spectrum Gaming is a leading consultancy in the US gaming industry. This week, the Pennsylvania-based firm issued insights on prediction markets.
“Spotlight: The Rise of Sports Prediction Markets” called the online platforms a “disruptive force” that blends “elements of betting, financial trading, and crowd-sourced forecasting.”
If sports prediction markets remain a CFTC-regulated industry, Spectrum’s team projects the industry will poach a considerable portion of the legal sports betting market.
With US sports betting revenue projected to reach $33B by 2030, even a 10% market share for prediction platforms represents a $3.3B opportunity, potentially higher if they expand into non-betting states and capture offshore activity,” the Spectrum note read.
Spectrum, however, included a word of caution.
“As our industry adapts to new models of engagement and risk, prediction markets offer both promise and peril. Their future will hinge on how effectively stakeholders balance innovation with integrity, and whether regulators embrace structured experimentation over blanket prohibition,” the summary concluded.
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