Prediction Markets Evolving Beyond Gambling, On Pace for $10B in Revenue
Posted on: February 23, 2026, 12:19h.
Last updated on: February 23, 2026, 12:20h.
- Citizens reiterates call for prediction markets to reach $10 billion in revenue by 2030
- Research firm says industry is evolving beyond “consumer-oriented gambling technology”
- Sees pathways to improved institutional access
Prediction market revenue is scaling alongside volume, indicating the nascent industry is on course to reach $10 billion in revenue by 2030.
That’s the take of Citizens analyst Devin Ryan who in a new report reiterated that $10 billion forecast he floated in December. Noting that industry revenue is following volume higher, Ryan points out that the $2 billion in annualized revenue projected two months ago may now be a $3 billion run rate.
Transaction fees remain the primary revenue driver today, but this level of sustained activity is increasingly sufficient to fund deeper investment in infrastructure, data products, and institutional access,” observes the analyst.
Regarding the much discussed $10 billion by 2030 forecast, which indicates the industry is growing at a rate rarely seen with new financial (or wagering) tools, Ryan describes that outlook as a “reasonable medium-term waypoint rather than an end state.”
Positive Signs for the Prediction Markets Non-Sports Crowd
One of the biggest debates between prediction markets detractors and supporters is the industry’s purported dependence on sports event contracts, which links it to sports wagering.
Prediction market backers see the industry as much more than an alternative to sports betting, pointing to the plethora of event contracts offered on everything from cryptocurrency prices to pop culture to politics and more. Conversely, critics point to data indicating sports derivatives account for the bulk of volume on yes/no exchanges.
There’s good news for prediction market bulls and operators themselves as Ryan sees the industry “evolving from a niche, consumer-oriented gambling technology into an emerging asset class.” That’s supportive of the growth outside of sports the industry needs to thrive long-term. The Citizens analyst points to some interesting volume trends that may allay concerns of prediction markets following similar seasonal trends as sportsbook operators.
“January volumes reached ~$9.6 billion at Kalshi (+45% vs. December) and ~$7.7 billion at Polymarket (+44% vs. December) even as U.S. football season waned, and February activity is tracking at similar levels,” notes Ryan. “This persistence suggests liquidity is expanding into a broader mix of recurring categories with growth beyond sports as well.”
On the other hand, it won’t be lost on critics that the NFL playoffs took place in January with the Super Bowl and the Winter Olympics arriving this month.
Prediction Markets Institutional Outlook Improving
Integral to prediction markets’ longer-ranging outlook is the industry’s ability to broaden its appeal to institutional investors — an audience that can rapidly expand use cases outside of sports event contracts.
That progression is occurring. Last week, Kalshi and Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ: TW) said they’re partnering to improve institutional access to prediction markets. Tradeweb is runs some of the most prominent trading platforms for credit, equities, interest rates, and money markets. In December, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), a major Polymarket investor, integrated Polymarket probabilities into its professional data feeds.
“In parallel, sophisticated market makers such as Susquehanna have begun allocating dedicated resources to prediction market trading, including recruiting specialized talent to build real time pricing and risk models for event driven outcomes,” concludes Ryan.
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