NFL Week 5: Day of Upsets, Led by Drake Maye and the Patriots Over Bills
Posted on: October 6, 2025, 01:33h.
Last updated on: October 6, 2025, 01:33h.
- Bills’ Super Bowl odds drift to +475 after upset loss to Patriots
- No more undefeated NFL teams after Eagles and Bills lose
- Patriots’ QB Drake Maye has a statement game
It’s the end of the undefeated – both the Bills and Eagles lost yesterday, just the fourth time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 that we’re heading into Week 6 no undefeated team.
NFL Parity Five Weeks In
So, parity is the storyline this NFL season. Somewhere NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is doing a celebratory dance. This is exactly what he wanted.
In the Patriots’ 23-20 win over the Bills on SNF, New England proved they finally have Tom Brady’s successor in Drake Maye at QB. The Patriots have been crawling in the darkness of pro football’s wilderness, years of ineptitude after decades of Super Bowl titles,. But Maye went toe-to-toe with MVP Josh Allen last night, 22-for-30, throwing for 273 yards in the unfriendly confines of Highmark Stadium, several of those spectacular throws during the fourth quarter.
Patriots Finally Have a QB
That plus a peak game from wide receiver, and former Bill, Stefon Diggs, who was clearly looking for revenge against the team that cut him loose the previous year.
Diggs was spectacular, catching 10 passes for 146 yards, and shone a spotlight on the fact that for the Bills, if you are going to cut a stud receiver who can separate like Diggs can, you better replace him with someone similar. The Bills haven’t done that, and it may cost them a Super Bowl.
The Bil’s offence was awful – Allen turning the ball over twice (a rare bad interception at the Patriots’ 10-yard line, and fumble). WR Keon Allen also lost a fumble.
Bills Look Awful in Loss
Best take this morning was from the great Adam Schein on Sirius’ Mad Dog Sports Radio:
“If you are a fan of the New England Patriots, you have to this morning be absolutely overjoyed. The Patriots marched into lovely Western New York as 8.5 point dogs and beat the Bills.
“The Buffalo Bills’ offense was atrocious. Their discipline was terrible. Their play calling was awful. I don’t think they were well coached. This was a Drake Maye ‘I’m here’ moment. There are a lot of smart people who believe that Drake Maye compares favorably to a young Josh Allen. You’re watching this and the thought process is Buffalo is going to find a way to survive this. The fact that it was Drake May and a rookie kicker banking a 52-yard field goal with 15 second left.
Colts Blow Out Raiders
“I picked the Bills to win the Super Bowl. They have not looked like a Super Bowl team in the first five weeks of the season … let’s be crystal clear about that, they’ve looked pretty pedestrian the last three times they’ve played. This was nightmare fuel if you are a Buffalo Bills fan. This is supposed to be your year, your moment, your time to shine with your quarterback playing better than anyone else on the planet. That, simply put, cannot happen.
“The Bills need that No. 1 seed, if they are going to win the AFC. You have to take advantage of the Chiefs not looking like the Chiefs, Joe Burrow being injured, Lamar Jackson being injured. The Bills need to win a game like that. Buffalo was sloppy last night, and that’s not what you wanted to see.”
Commanders Hand Herbert and Chargers Surprise Loss
Overall, yesterday, it was a Sunday of upsets – the Eagles coughing up a 14-point lead at home, losing 21-17 to the Broncos, the Saints beating Jaxson Dart and the Giants 26-14, the Titans winning their first game of the season, 22-21 over the Cardinals, the Commanders beating the heavily favored Chargers 27-10.
“The early start in London did not deter customers who started the day great with the Vikings’ comeback to cover the -3.5 spread, having both pre-match and in-play bettors rejoice early,” said Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook. “The early games overall were a big win for the customers as the 10 am slate continued the trend of fancied teams delivering and the popular dogs, Carolina, Dallas, also winning straight up.”
Patriots Cut Super Bowl Odds
Best games for bettors there were the Vikings Cover -3.5 Spread, Cowboys Moneyline, and Colts Cover -7 Spread, while the best games for the book included Broncos Moneyline.
Interesting movement on Super Bowl betting at ESPN BET – The Bills remain the Super Bowl favorite despite drifting back from +400 pregame to +475 after the loss to the Patriots.
New England cut their Super Bowl winner odds from +10000 on Sunday morning to +5000 now after the big road win. The Bills are the most bet Super Bowl winner on ESPN BET by total bets and handle.
Money Going Chiefs’ Way for MNF
The Eagles have the second-best Super Bowl Winner odds at +650 (+600 entering Sunday), while the Lions improved slightly (entered +800, now +700) to be tied for the third-best odds with the Packers.
The Chiefs saw their odds shorten from +900 to +750 as of Monday morning ahead of a MNF meeting with the Jaguars, while the Ravens drifted from +1000 to +1500, still the sixth-best odds.
For the Monday nighter, Chiefs versus Jaguars, 32.5% of bets and 50.3% of handle are on Jaguars +3.5 (opened +2.5), and 68.4% of bets and 81.1% of handle are on Chiefs ML (-195).
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