Are the Broncos an Underdog Threat with No Bo Nix at QB?
Posted on: January 21, 2026, 02:32h.
Last updated on: January 21, 2026, 02:35h.
- Fanatics trader said Broncos capable of pulling off the upset against the Patriots Sunday
- Seahawks’ running back Kenneth Walker is one player to watch out for on the player prop front
- Rams-Seahawks’ spread hovering around Seahawks -2.5
How would you like to be a Denver Broncos fan today? On the one hand you’re ecstatic because your team is hosting the Conference Championship Sunday against the New England Patriots. But you also lost your star quarterback in accomplishing that.
Bo Nix broke his ankle a few plays from the end of the Broncos’ 33-30 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills last Sunday. Backup Jarrett Stidham steps in to replace him. Sunday will be his first start at QB since 2023 Week 18 (just four career starts, fewest by a QB starting a Conference Championship in NFL history).
Stidham was Sean Payton’s first free agent signing as Broncos head coach. He says he believes in him. But what else is he going to say? It’s going to be a difficult task for him, and for the team to adjust around him.
Patriots Betting Favourites
The Patriots and Broncos AFC Championship game starts at 3 p.m. EST on Sunday, while the L.A. Rams are in Seattle to face the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game at 6:30 p.m. The winners face off in the Super Bowl Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, at 6:30 p.m.
Current line at DraftKings: Moneyline is Patriots -258, Broncos +210; spread is Patriots -5.5 (-105), Broncos +5.5 (-115), and the Over 42.5 (-108), Under 42.5 (-112). For the NFC game: Rams +130, Seahawks -155; spread is Rams +2.5 (-105), Seahawks -2.5 (-115), and the Over 46.5 (-115), Under 46.5 (-105).
There’s upset potential in the Broncos game, though, said Ethan Useloff, Sports Trader with Fanatics Sportsbook.
Now Sean Payton has over seven days to prepare for Jarrett Stidham under center,” he said. “He’s one of the best game plan managers and preparers in football, and especially the last decade and a half, to be able to prepare for a scenario like this. I expect the Broncos to be ready.
Broncos a Solid Underdog Bet
“That’s why I wouldn’t count out Denver against New England at home. I believe the way the Broncos run their offence (from a schematic perspective), they can get enough out of Stidham to potentially win this game. They have one of the best offensive lines in football, and they create turnovers, their defence is stout,” he added.
“It’s going to come down to more so can Mike Vrabel and his defence make Stidham super uncomfortable in a scenario that he hasn’t been thrust into in years. That’s the No. 1 injury that the bettors are going to be excited about, but also, from an odds-making perspective, we have to make sure we’re super ready for it.”
Broncos’ Stidham: First Start at QB Since 2023
Useloff said Fanatics is seeing a lot of Patriots’ action so far. Public confidence in Stidham isn’t as high as what Payton expressed Saturday at that news conference. That line has bounced around – Fanatics started at six, then yesterday morning when we spoke with Useloff it was at 4.5.
So the public is not a fan of him or the Broncos to win this game despite being at home, but it’s still sat at that four and a half mark at Fanatics for the last five hours,” he said yesterday morning. “With Rams-Seahawks, we’re seeing so much more on Seattle to win that game, and then also to cover the two and a half. And it’s been at two and a half for most of that time. It got up to three for a period, but it’s primarily been two and a half so far. I expect that to close around that two and a half mark as well, just inside of that field goal.”
Player Prop Focus: Kenneth Walker
As Useloff said, these games from an odds-making perspective become a lot tighter. Third downs and turnovers become more consequential. It’s a seven- or eight-day preparation period where it’s win or go home.
On the player props front, Useloff said he’s excited about Kenneth Walker, the Seahawks running back, in the Rams game, who has a huge opportunity with Zach Charbonnet down for the season with knee injury.
Yesterday Walker was -180 at Fanatics Sportsbook to score an any time touchdown.
Darnold’s Interception Problem
“Walker’s going to have a heavy dose of carries and goal line touches, and to me, that’s a really exciting offering,” said Useloff. “It looks like he’s an unrestricted free agent at the end of this year as well, so it’s a huge opportunity for him to earn his contract for next year with the Seahawks, so that’s one I’d like to circle a lot.”
Still, Useloff said if he had to choose one underdog, it would be the Rams. Useloff points to the turnover ratio so far in the two games involving the two teams – seven to one in far of the Rams.
Darnold had six interceptions against this Rams’ defence this year,” he added. “That’s a staggering number given the fact they are only one point net down on the season (the teams split the season series – Rams beat Seattle 21-19 on Nov. 16, with Seattle winning 38-37 on Dec. 19).”
Red Zone Play
Also, with red zone play – Rams went 3-for-4 in that first game, the Seahawks went 1-for-4, and in the second game it was Rams 3-for-6, the Seahawks 2-for-3. Useloff also pointed to time of possession – the Seahawks 38 minutes in the time of possession when they lost, and then the Rams having 40 and a half minutes of time of possession when they lost. So clearly time of possession is not indicative of a winning formula in this game. It’s going to come down to third down, red zone, turnover margin, and the margins are thin.
That, and Darnold’s record from last season, struggling in a wild card game loss as a member of the Minnesota Vikings, also against the Rams – sacked nine times, which observers pinned on Darnold holding onto the ball too long. That game left a big stain on Darnold’s legacy and was connected to his departure from Minnesota. That doubt about Darnold in big games still lingers, even more of a factor than any concern about an oblique injury, which was an issue with bettors last week.
“So when you talk about any surprise underdogs, I don’t think it would be a surprise for the Rams to win,” said Useloff. “That’s an underdog I definitely am circling and would want to back at the plus money that they’re being offered right now.”
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