Macau Casino Stocks Still Discounted, Could Rally Anew in 2026
Posted on: January 2, 2026, 10:01h.
Last updated on: January 2, 2026, 10:01h.
- 2026 Macau GGR estimates could prove conservative.
- Macau casino stocks could be ways to play China recovery, says analyst.
- Group trades at compelling discounts.
Coming off a strong 2025 in which concessionaires won $30.9 billion, the highest level since before the coronavirus pandemic, Macau casino stocks could deliver more upside this year.
In a new report, Stifel analyst Steven Wiecyznski notes the Macau government’s forecast of 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of 3.5% is likely too restrained, adding his firm estimates GGR in the Chinese gaming enclave will rise 4% to 8% this year. At the high end, that’s slightly ahead of the consensus forecast calling for 7% growth.
While there could be ebbs and flows to monthly GGR results (for several reasons), we continue to believe in the long-term resiliency of the market and believe it’s a matter of when, not if, the market returns to pre-pandemic levels,” observes the analyst. “Macau operators continue to trade at discounts to historical long-term valuation metrics, which we believe are more tied to macro/geopolitical fears versus the actual health of the market.”
He believes those macro fears will wane over time and that there’s potential upside to Macau GGR estimates if the VIP cohort proves resurgent.
Macau Casino Stocks ‘Compelling Names to Own’
Macau casino stocks soundly topped Hong Kong’s (HK) Hang Seng Index last year, but even with those rebounds, the group remains discounted relative to historical norms and somewhat out of favor among professional investors.
Regarding the latter point, Wieczynski said investor interest perked up in recent months as Chinese economic and GGR data improved. Those factors could serve as 2026 tailwinds for Macau casino stocks.
“As we enter 2026, we continue to believe Macau-centric stocks are compelling names to own,” adds the analyst. “We believe current consensus estimates for Macau-centric names remain very much conservative, and we don’t see a reason why there shouldn’t be upside to current consensus forecasts given the continued strong visitation/spend patterns currently being witnessed in the market.”
The US-based Macau concessionaires are Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), MGM China majority owner MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN).
China Stimulus Could Stimulate Macau Casino Stocks
While some US investors may need more positive news to get involved with Macau gaming equities, it is clear Beijing is working to support the Chinese economy — the world’s second-largest — and those stimulus efforts could spark Macau GGR and visitation levels.
“We would also remind investors how stimulus benefited the regional gaming operators/casinos in the U.S. back in 2021 and 2022. We believe the same thing could happen in Macau,” notes Wieczynski. “While we can sit here and try and make a value call around these names, it’s still going to be a tough sled ahead until U.S. investors get more comfortable with the China macro backdrop.”
The analyst points out that getting back to pre-coronavirus GGR levels is “achievable” for Macau operators, but that won’t be a ceiling because improving infrastructure could spur long-term gaming growth in the special administrative region (SAR).
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