Macau Casino Outlook Upgraded, Analysts Forecast $31.1 Billion in 2025 Gaming Revenue
Posted on: September 10, 2025, 09:52h.
Last updated on: September 10, 2025, 10:08h.
- Macau’s casino industry continues to be upgraded by analysts
- Macau is amid its most significant post-pandemic recovery
- Gaming revenue through August is up 7.2% from 2024
The Macau casino industry is experiencing its most significant post-COVID-19 comeback. Through August, casino revenue from games of fortune, as they’re called by the city’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, totaled $20.3 billion. Analysts expect the rally only to continue, if not further surge, in the final four months of the year.
Macau is in the midst of a comeback, a gaming rally few saw coming. After VIP junket groups fled during the pandemic, largely because of Beijing ordering the Special Administrative Region’s Judicial Police to keep closer tabs on their operations, which resulted in the successful prosecution of billionaire Alvin Chau, the Suncity Group founder who in 2023 was sentenced to 18 years in prison, optimism was rather low on the region’s gaming industry.
Along with far fewer VIPs gambling thousands of dollars per hand on baccarat in private high-roller rooms, the six casino concessionaires — Sands, Galaxy, Wynn, MGM, Melco, and SJM — were forced to invest billions of dollars into their resorts, most by way of nongaming projects, in exchange for 10-year extensions of their gaming privileges.
The high overhead and lower premium player pool led to many investors selling off their stakes in the gaming giants. Analysts were also bearish on Macau’s outlook.
2025 Surprise
Perhaps the only people not overly worried about the future of Macau were the casino executives of the six companies who best know the market. They assured that their nongaming focus would attract more visitors to the enclave, the only place under Chinese control where casinos are allowed.
The six firms pivoted from the VIP to the premium mass player, a high-end gambler who doesn’t meet the threshold of a high roller but still gambles $400 to $1,300 a hand on baccarat. Paired with diversifying its offering with major K-pop acts, new sporting events and arenas, and a better ability to attract conventions, Macau has seen a surge in year-over-year gross gaming revenue (GGR).
Macau casino revenue is $1.36 billion richer through eight months than it was at this time last year, an increase of 7.2%. Analysts at Citigroup Global Markets Asia expect the GGR growth to continue through December.
We are raising our 2025 GGR year-on-year growth forecast from plus 7% to plus 10% — a plus 14% year-on-year growth for the rest of the year,” the Citigroup note read.
The analysts project full-year 2025 GGR to come in around MOP248.6 billion (US$31.1 billion). Citi is also upping its 2026 outlook from 5% to 7%, or $33.3 billion.
The Citi researchers said big-name K-pop and entertainment acts in Macau have recently proven that the Las Vegas model can work in the Chinese enclave. The analysts said casinos successfully managed to convert many concert attendees to small and medium-stakes gamblers.
Baccarat Side Bets
Macau casinos are also benefiting from adding new side bets to baccarat. Unlike in Las Vegas, where slots are the game of choice, baccarat tables command the lion’s share of casino gaming floors throughout much of Asia.
Citi analysts say the additional side bets have significantly enhanced the house edge and are “pushing up casino hold rates.”
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