Macau Casino Industry Receives Major Upgrades Following Recent Numbers

Posted on: August 5, 2025, 03:39h. 

Last updated on: August 4, 2025, 04:43h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.
  • Macau’s casino outlook is being revised positively
  • Macau has experienced a strong recovery in 2025
  • GGR for the year could improve 10%, analysts say

The Macau casino market is trending positively, and that has certain brokerages amending their 2025 gaming outlooks.

Macau casino revenue GGR China
The entrance to Wynn Palace on the Cotai Strip in Macau. Macau casino revenue has outpaced analyst expectations in 2025, prompting some financial observers to amend their full-year 2025 GGR outlooks. (Image: Shutterstock)

In July, Macau casinos experienced their best month in terms of gross gaming revenue (GGR) since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Casino revenue in the Chinese Special Administrative Region surged 19%.

July’s GGR tally came despite a roughly 24-hour shutdown of travel in and out of Macau due to a looming typhoon. The weather event spared Macau, and casinos remained open to shelter workers and visitors.

July followed June’s strong showing, where GGR was also up 19% year-over-year.

Following a slow start to the year, Macau casino win has bettered the same month in 2024 for six consecutive months. The stronger-than-expected GGR numbers have prompted Morgan Stanley to alter its full-year outlook.

Expectations Doubled 

On Monday, days after the July Macau casino report dropped, Morgan Stanley’s Hong Kong office upped its 2025 GGR estimates. With recovery becoming clearer, analysts Praveen Choudhary, Anson Lee, and Stephen Gambling adjusted their numbers from 5% to 10% year-over-year GGR growth.

Saying the June and July numbers “surprised us” and their colleagues, the Morgan Stanley note revealed that the firm now expects full-year GGR to come in around MOP249 billion (US$30.8 billion). The previous projection, based on 5% growth, was $29.5 billion.

Macau has benefited from reductions in mainland and Hong Kong visitors to Thailand and Japan lately, and RMB strength has helped as well,” the Morgan Stanley note explained. “Our new estimate of +10% year-on-year would result in estimate increases and re-ratings as Macau moves from an ex-growth industry to growth. With China consumption still weak, Macau should provide welcome relief for investors.”

Morgan Stanley wasn’t the only brokerage to up its 2025 outlook. Seaport Research Partners revised its forecast from 7% to 9% year-on-year growth. Seaport thinks casino win from the six gaming operators will come in slightly below Morgan Stanley’s projection at $30.6 billion.  

Seaport’s Global Gaming analyst Vitaly Umansky cited an improving economy in China for the strong GGR reports. He said the economic improvements have especially lifted up the upper middle class, a demographic Macau casinos are now aggressively pursuing.

Year to date, Macau casino revenue is up 6.5% to MOP140.89 billion (US$17.4 billion). The six casino operators are more than $1 billion ahead of where they were at this time last year.

Buying Opportunity?

This week’s Morgan Stanley coverage included the opinion that shares of Macau’s publicly traded gaming firms could be ripe for a buy. Investors have been bullish on all four of the casino organizations that are traded publicly in the U.S.

Over the past six months, shares of Wynn Resorts have soared 29%, Las Vegas Sands has climbed 18%, and MGM Resorts has added 3%. The biggest gainer, however, has been Melco Resorts, whose shares have spiked 65% since early February.