Kalshi, Musk’s xAI Strike Deal Bringing Prediction Markets to Grok
Posted on: July 25, 2025, 12:49h.
Last updated on: July 25, 2025, 01:16h.
- Kalshi reaches deal with xAI two months after premature announcement
- Partnership includes using Grok for analysis of prediction markets
- News emerges after social media platform struck deal with Polymarket
Prediction markets operator Kalshi and Elon Musk’s xAI have a deal in place that will bring artificial intelligence chatbot Grok, which is used on Musk’s X social media platform, to the world of event contracts.
The accord was unveiled Thursday on the xAI X feed about two months after Kalshi co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Tarek Mansour prematurely announced a pact between the two companies. Musk’s xAI is the artificial intelligence (AI) technology underpinning the well-known Grok and Grok 3 API tools.
“Effective immediately, Kalshi and xAI are partnering to bring Grok to prediction markets,” according to the xAI X feed. “Two of the fastest-growing companies in America are now on the same team.”
xAI was founded by Musk in 2023. In March, the AI outfit acquired X, the social media platform, for $45 billion – a price tag including $12 billion in debt Musk took on to buy the company previously known as Twitter. It’s believed the marriage could improve Grok’s AI capabilities.
“xAI and X’s futures are intertwined,” Musk, who also runs electric vehicle maker Tesla and SpaceX, wrote in a post on X in March. “Today, we officially take the step to combine the data, models, compute, distribution, and talent.”
xAI Deal Vital to Kalshi
News of the xAI/Kalshi deal arrived after the fourth version of Grok was released earlier this month. Grok’s improvements could enhance the integration of Kalshi on the platform.
The prediction markets operator says the AI union will enable it to more efficiently analyze data from X, parse it into summaries and trading signals that can be harnessed by traders for more informed, faster decisions.
“What once seemed crazy is now obvious,” wrote Mansour in a LinkedIn post. “When we launched Kalshi, people thought we were nuts. Today, prediction markets are one of the most powerful tools for understanding the world… AI will be critical to the evolution of prediction markets.”
The deal with xAI has the potential to drive more users to Kalshi at a time when app downloads and daily active usage are declining, according to analytics site Apptopia. That’s likely the result of tough comparisons against the timeframe leading up to the 2024 presidential election, and because it’s a slow period for US sports. Sports contracts are among the most heavily traded derivatives on Kalshi despite the company’s claims it’s not a sportsbook operator.
Kalshi xAI Deal Intensifies Polymarket Rivalry
The xAI/Kalshi partnership further intensifies the predict markets company’s competition with Polymarket, which reached a similar agreement with X last month. Polymarket is close to reentering the US, likely amplifying its rivalry with Kalshi.
The X-Polymarket partnership, announced June 6, 2025, integrates Polymarket’s prediction market platform into X, allowing users to bet on event outcomes like elections or sports using cryptocurrency,” according to a Grok response to an X user query. “This could enhance engagement, offer real-time insights, and enable potential earnings for accurate predictions. However, concerns include gambling-like risks, regulatory hurdles, and accessibility for non-crypto users.”
In a recent CNBC interview, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan said his company is the original in the space, adding Kalshi is a copycat.
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