Eagles Win Leads to Weak Super Bowl Hold for Sportsbooks
Posted on: February 10, 2025, 12:55h.
Last updated on: February 10, 2025, 01:39h.
- The Philadelphia Eagles victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX led to decreased hold for sportsbooks
- The game still likely provided long-term benefits for sportsbooks
The Philadelphia Eagles trounced the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX, making a dream come true for sports fans in the City of Brotherly Love while creating a nightmare for sportsbook operators.
Entering the big game, the ideal outcome for gaming companies was a Chiefs win and the total points going under 48.5. The Eagles put the game away in the third quarter and some too-little, too-late scoring by the Chiefs sent the total over, resulting in a below-average hold rate for a Super Bowl. Macquarie estimates the hold for this year’s Super Bowl was 0% to 5%.
In sports betting parlance, hold refers to the percentage of money retained by books for each dollar wagered. For example, if $20 is held on a $100 wager, the hold is 20%.
As of midday trading on Monday, sports wagering equities aren’t reflecting ominous Super Bowl hold with DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) up 1.11% and Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI) higher by almost 2%. FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: RSI) is dealing with a small loss.
Some Super Bowl Silver Lining for Sportsbooks
While the bulk of public money was on the Eagles at +1.5 and the over, the Super Bowl was likely a net positive for sportsbook operators for multiple reasons. As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, the Eagles’ Saquon Barkley and the Chief’s Travis Kelce scoring touchdowns were two of the most popular player propositions, and neither came through for bettors.
We estimate live/halftime bets were positive for sportsbooks, with most public bettors taking KC at halftime (+~15 points) which ended up being a losing bet,” observed Beynon.
Beynon also notes that the Chiefs losing may have been a plus for some operators because those companies had exposure to futures bets — many likely placed at plus money — to the team winning another Super Bowl.
“As a reminder, last year DKNG was able to hold in line with expectations from a total hold rate perspective due to diversified bets and parlays, despite a negative game outcome (similar to this year),” adds Beynon.
Long-Term Super Bowl Benefits for Sportsbooks
The side and the total didn’t go sportsbooks’ way, and that occurred after a lengthy spell of customer-friendly outcomes on NFL games this season. Even so, no one is going to cry for gaming companies, and the big game likely brought big long-term benefits for operators.
The Super Bowl is a prime opportunity for gaming companies to figure out which bettors are deserving of marketing dollars along with being one of the marquee customer-acquisition events on the US sports calendar. It’s likely the latter box was checked with ease.
“Super Bowls are always great events for acquiring new customers, but with Super Bowl LIX likely setting viewership records, partly driven by over 60% of the US population now having access to OSB in addition to strong side stories (Taylor Swift and President Trump’s involvement), we view Super Bowl LIX as unequivocally positive for the NFL and sportsbooks,” concludes Beynon.
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