Back to the Sweat for Canadian Sportsbooks As ALCS Series Momentum Shifts
Posted on: October 17, 2025, 01:59h.
Last updated on: October 17, 2025, 05:01h.
- Blue Jays -116 ML betting favourites ahead of ALCS Game 5 tonight
- Scherzer dominates in Game 4 win
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Home runs +400 most bet prop for Game 5
Max Scherzer, 41, is the talk of the nation north of the 49th parallel today, after a fiery, ragin’, snarlin’ pitching performance in Game 4 of the American League Championship Series between his Blue Jays and the Mariners last night in Seattle.
Mad Max Bulls Blue Jays to Game 4 Win
Most people have seen the highlights – Jays manager John Schneider walking to the mound to check on his starting pitcher in the fifth inning, Jays up 5-1, Scherzer barking at his manager, telling him he is staying in the game, Schneider telling him to execute the last out of the sixth inning. So Scherzer does that – punching out Randy Arozarena on a curve ball. The Jays won last night 8-2, after taking Game 3, also in Seattle, 13-4.
“I thought he was going to kill me. It was great. He locked eyes with me, both colors, as I walked out,” Schneider said with a smile. “He has this Mad Max persona, but he backed it up tonight.”
The Jays arrived in Seattle mid-week, dead as dead, down 2-0 in the best-of-seven series, staring at three games in the opposition team’s park, after a tightly fought Game 1, 3-1 loss followed by a Seattle beatdown in Game 2, 10-3.
Gausman Leads Team Into Game 5 Tonight
But as Scherzer himself told his teammates after Game 2, in baseball, things can change on a whim.
“All of a sudden, this is a three-game series out in Seattle and that can be a completely different set of circumstances, games unfolding in different ways than they unfolded here,” he told Sportsnet. “As disappointing as these first two games were, this is baseball, things can change on a dime.”
Talk about a rollercoaster ride for Canadian bettors. After that Game 2 drubbing, Canadians were breaking ankles jumping off bandwagons.
Mariners’ Miller Looks for Repeat of Game 1
Then two former Cy Young winners, first Shane Bieber Wednesday night, then Scherzer last night, went into Seattle and pitched the hell out of it. Momentum changed. Canadians tend to go from one emotional extreme to the other at 300 mph, especially with our pro sports teams. So, Tuesday morning after Game 2 it was dark clouds and depression along with a turkey hangover, and now it’s sunshine and candy floss.
Tonight, in Game 5 (6:08 p.m. EST first pitch), the Jays start Kevin Gausman, going up against the Mariners’ Bryce Miller, a rematch from Game 1. Gausman took the loss in Game 1, but looked good overall – 5.2 innings, three hits, two runs, 5 strikeouts.
The Blue Jays are running back the same lineup for Game 5.
Among their Ontario customers, a spokesperson from DraftKings said a massive 93% of handle and 85% of bets are on the Blue Jays ML tonight (Jays -116, Mariners -105).
Canadian Bettors Swarming Jays’ ML
As we’ve written about in the recent past, Canadian bettors back their sports teams like no other. But those numbers from DraftKings are another level.
“Fans naturally love to back their hometown teams, and we’re seeing that in full force with the Blue Jays tonight,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook. “As they look to complete their comeback, Ontario bettors are showing strong confidence — backing the Jays to take their first series lead.”
A spokesperson from PointsBet Canada says bet count is up 33% since the Jays travelled to Seattle down 2-0. According to a spokesperson from FanDuel, on Monday, over 90% of bets were on the Jays to win, and for this evening’s game, early data shows over 90% of bets are on the Jays to win as well.
Added Eric Biggio, the Lead Baseball oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook: “Almost all the money is coming on the Jays and over 7. Considering the way their bats have woken up, I can understand why.” There’s a big shift in the Blue Jays in the futures pools as well, Biggio told Casino.org: After Game 2, +475 to win the ALCS, now -105; 14/1 to win the World Series, now +375.
Back to the Sweat for Canadian Sportsbooks
At ESPN BET this afternoon, 67% of bets, 88.4% of handle are on Jays -1.5; 69.9% of bets, 58.7% of handle are on Blue Jays ML -120, 16.9% of bets, 77.7% of handle are on Under 7.5. When the Mariners were up 2-0, Seattle was –550 to win the series while Toronto was +400. Now at ESPN.BET, it’s Seattle Even/Toronto –120.
“After the first two losses the Jays’ championship price and World Series price had pretty much doubled,” said Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction, and an industry sports betting consultant. “As we’ve talked about Canadian bettors bet where the hearts are, not so much the mind.
“So those two markets continued to take heavy action on Toronto thus expanding the existing liability greatly that was already there. Canadian bettors continued to pound them at those inflated numbers. Live betting has seen tremendous handle especially with the lopsided scores as bettors hit the dog hard hoping for that big comeback as we saw the Yankees pull off in the ALDS. It’s back to the ‘sweat’ for Canadian books.
The Total at 7, I find surprising, as three of the four games have gone resoundingly over.”
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