Caesars Poised to Miss Q2 Earnings Forecasts, Says Analyst

Posted on: July 23, 2025, 12:14h. 

Last updated on: July 23, 2025, 12:24h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • Caesars is likely to miss Q2 estimates due to weakness on the Las Vegas Strip
  • Third quarter might not be much better
  • Analyst also lowers regional casino estimates, but do to one-off issues

Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) delivers second-quarter results after the close of US markets on Tuesday, July 29, and analysts are preparing investors not to expect much from that report.

Las Vegas July 4 hotel room casino
Caesars Palace on the Las Vegas Strip. The company’s Q2 results are unlikely to include positive fireworks. (Image: Shutterstock)

Count J.P. Morgan’s Daniel Politzer as part of that group. In a new report to clients, the analyst notes Caesars’ Las Vegas earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs (EBITDAR) for the second and third quarters could come in below expectations. He sees the gaming company delivering Las Vegas EBITDAR of $479 million for the June quarter, slightly below the Wall Street consensus of $482 million.

For the current quarter, Politzer pared his EBITDAR forecast on the Flamingo operator to $430 million from $459 million. Those moves jibe with what’s been increasingly gloomy sentiment pertaining to Las Vegas Strip gross gaming revenue (GGR) and visitation data. Downbeat Sin City views are highly pertinent to Caesars investors because the company is the second-largest Strip operator.

For the June quarter, analysts expect the Harrah’s operator to report earnings per share of five cents on the basis of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Revenue is forecast to be $2.86 billion, but over the past 90 days, nine analysts have pared those projections, according to Seeking Alpha data.

Caesars’ Longer-Ranging Vegas Views Matter

Investors have priced in tepid visitation at the hands of the ongoing trade calamity with Canada and Mexico, as well as customers increasingly feeling as though Las Vegas is offering less value, as factors that could weigh on casino operators’ second-quarter results. If anything, Caesars has been granted some leeway as the stock is up 5% over the past month and 12% over the past 90 days.

For that momentum to continue, investors may need to exercise patience with shares of Las Vegas-exposed operators, and that requires the companies giving market participants reason to do so.

For Las Vegas, the forward outlook will be in focus, especially for the third quarter where trends appear weak as well as the fourth quarter and first half of 2026 where group/convention business could drive growth,” observes Politzer.

He adds that Caesars’ free cash flow is impressive and the stock is discounted. The analyst has a $48 price target on the name, implying upside of 60% from where it trades as of this writing.

“We like Caesars for its material net free cash flow generation (50%+ of market cap) through 2027, which should accrete to shareholders via debt reduction and/or capital returns; heavily discounted valuation – even ascribing zero value to Caesar’s OpCo assets, we arrive at a fair value in the mid-$40s,” according to the analyst.

Regional Casinos Could Pick Up Some Slack

Caesars has one of the largest portfolios of regional casinos, confirming its non-Las Vegas venues figure prominently in the broader investment thesis. Politzer lowered his second-quarter EBITDAR forecast on Caesars’ regional venues to $448 million from $463 million, but that was driven by temporary issues at properties in Atlantic City, Lake Tahoe, and Louisiana.

The J.P. Morgan analyst speculates that on Caesars’ upcoming earnings call, points of interest regarding the regional portfolio are likely to include consumer health, margins, and the cadence of promotional spending aimed at generating more foot traffic.