BetMGM Is No Fan of Prediction Markets

Posted on: April 14, 2026, 08:32h. 

Last updated on: April 14, 2026, 08:32h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt says prediction markets are behind increased customer acquisition costs
  • He believes bettors that left for yes/no exchanges will eventually return
  • He believes BetMGM offers a better value proposition

Earlier today, BetMGM disappointing first-quarter results while reducing its 2026 and CEO Adam Greenblatt didn’t hold back on his views on prediction markets.

A BetMGM advertisement at a baseball stadium. The company is pushing back against prediction markets. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

Due in part to customer-friendly outcomes in the first three months of the year, BetMGM pared its 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) guidance to the low end of the previously issued range of $300 million to $350 million while cutting its revenue forecast to between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion, down from the $3.1 billion-to-$3.2 billion range. Greenblatt didn’t blame the first-quarter malaise on prediction markets, but he did say that industry is driving up customer acquisition costs.

This jump is largely driven by new sports betting companies buying media in the category,” Greenblatt said. “They call themselves prediction markets.”

The BetMGM chief executive officer added he believes the era of “hyper-spending,” but for now the operator is likely to spend less in states where it only offers sports betting, according to CFO Gary Deutsch, implying it could direct more customer acquisition dollars to its iGaming states.

BetMGM Approach Could Be Validated

Shareholders of Entain Plc (OTC: GMVHY) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), which each own half of BetMGM, may be relieved that online gaming company isn’t engaging in a spending “land grab” with prediction market competitors.

“I don’t control what others choose to spend, underpinning bad investment,” said Greenblatt on a conference call. “We’re controlling the controllable. We’re not assuming that irrational spending continues to become more rational. Long-term, the market is going to come back to us and that’s an exciting moment.”

BetMGM’s approach may be validated not only because of tempered spending, but also because by not moving into prediction markets, the integrity of the company’s iGaming and sports wagering licenses is preserved. The same goes for MGM’s land-based casino permits.

In industry circles, there’s also speculation that operators that don’t move into prediction markets could be rewarded as more states consider iGaming legislation and as some, such as California and Texas, mull approval of sports betting.

BetMGM Sees Customers Returning

In what appears to be an acknowledgement that BetMGM has lost some business to yes/no exchanges, Greenblatt, while also delivering a pot shot against prediction markets, says some of those customers will eventually return.

“The value proposition is better for most players unless you’re in high school. But that is not our customer,” he said on the call.

Part of that value proposition is BetMGM’s ties to the MGM Rewards program – something that can’t be matched by event contract platforms.