BetMGM Is No Fan of Prediction Markets

Posted on: April 14, 2026, 08:32h. 

Last updated on: April 17, 2026, 04:18h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.
  • BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt says prediction markets are behind increased customer acquisition costs
  • He believes bettors that left for yes/no exchanges will eventually return
  • He believes BetMGM offers a better value proposition

BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt has suggested prediction markets are driving an increase in its customer acquisition costs following slower than expected growth in Q1 2026.

A BetMGM advertisement at a baseball stadium. The company is pushing back against prediction markets. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

In its latest update, BetMGM reported a 6% year-on-year increase in net gaming revenue to $696 million, with an iGaming net revenue increase of 9% and online sports net revenue increase of 4% on the same basis.

Company earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) grew by 11% year-on-year to $25 million.

Due in part to customer-friendly outcomes in the first three months of the year, BetMGM pared its 2026 EBITDA guidance to the low end of the previously issued range of $300 million to $350 million while cutting its revenue forecast to between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion, down from the $3.1 billion-to-$3.2 billion range.

“Our underlying fundamentals are healthy and growing, and we’ve built the business to ensure that we are nimble and rational allocators of capital between our iGaming and sports businesses,” Greenblatt told investors on the company’s Q1 update call.

“And, as an iGaming-first operator who’s approaching $2 billion of annual iGaming revenue, we are better positioned than most, if not all others, from the ever-escalating noise of prediction markets present in the market,” he added.

Acquisition Costs On The Rise

While Greenblatt didn’t blame the first-quarter malaise on prediction markets, he did say that industry is driving up customer acquisition costs.

This jump is largely driven by new sports betting companies buying media in the category,” Greenblatt said. “They call themselves prediction markets.”

The BetMGM chief executive officer added he believes the era of “hyper-spending,” but for now the operator is likely to spend less in states where it only offers sports betting, according to CFO Gary Deutsch, implying it could direct more customer acquisition dollars to its iGaming states.

Addressing the legal issues encountered by prediction markets operators, the BetMGM CEO voiced his support for a swift resolution to the question of their regulation.

“We look forward to an expedient outcome of the almost inevitable hearing of the pro states rights, pro tribal rights, and anti prediction markets case by [the U.S. Supreme Court],” Greenblatt said.

“In the meantime, we’re refining our approach to OSB marketing for the rest of the year under the assumption that current media conditions persist, ” he added.

BetMGM Approach Could Be Validated

Shareholders of Entain Plc (OTC: GMVHY) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), which each own 50% of BetMGM, may be relieved that online gaming company isn’t engaging in a spending “land grab” with prediction market competitors.

“I don’t control what others choose to spend, underpinning bad investment,” said Greenblatt on a conference call.

“We’re controlling the controllable. We’re not assuming that irrational spending continues to become more rational. Long-term, the market is going to come back to us and that’s an exciting moment,” he added.

BetMGM’s approach may be validated not only because of tempered spending, but also because by not moving into prediction markets, the integrity of the company’s iGaming and sports wagering licenses is preserved. The same goes for MGM’s land-based casino permits.

In industry circles, there’s also speculation that operators that don’t move into prediction markets could be rewarded as more states consider iGaming legislation and as some, such as California and Texas, mull approval of sports betting.

BetMGM Sees Customers Returning

In what appears to be an acknowledgement that BetMGM has lost some business to yes/no exchanges, Greenblatt, while also delivering a pot shot against prediction markets, says some of those customers will eventually return.

“The value proposition is better for most players unless you’re in high school. But that is not our customer,” he said on the call.

Part of that value proposition is BetMGM’s ties to the MGM Rewards program – something that can’t be matched by event contract platforms.