Are Prediction Markets Poised to Take Over Sports Betting, Domestically and Abroad?
Posted on: December 11, 2025, 02:26h.
Last updated on: December 10, 2025, 01:54h.
- Prediction markets continue to be the talk of the legal gaming industry
- Kalshi and its competitors say state gaming laws don’t apply to prediction markets, including sports event contracts
No issue facing the legal gaming industry in the United States is more concerning than prediction markets. The divisive online trading exchanges, which facilitate the buying and selling of binary yes/no bets on everything from tomorrow’s weather to whether Ukraine and Russia will reach a peace deal, could soon become a concern for lawmaking and regulatory officials across the pond.
Prediction markets like Kalshi, Crypto.com, Polymarket, and Robinhood claim they facilitate derivative trades. With licenses from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the online websites and apps say state gaming laws don’t apply.
While federal court cases to determine the legitimacy of those claims are ongoing, with Casino.org’s Todd Shriber reporting this week that the odds are good the cases will reach the US Supreme Court, established sports betting operators like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics are moving forward with their prediction market entries.
State gaming regulators have warned sportsbooks that prediction markets running sports event contracts are violating sports betting laws and, therefore, must be avoided. But the sportsbook leaders continuing to invest in PM platforms hints that they anticipate the legal outcome to go in the way of the emerging markets.
The prediction markets have a major supporter in President Donald Trump. The former casino tycoon’s public company, Trump Media & Technology Group, is readying Truth Predict, a prediction market platform to integrate with the president’s Truth Social media platform.
Prediction Markets’ Global Reach
NYC-based Kalshi is the US leader in prediction markets, but Polymarket, a crypto-based PM exchange also based in New York, leads elsewhere. Kalshi is focused on expanding globally, with the firm in October announcing that its liquidity pool spans more than 140 countries.
While Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia have banned Kalshi, most other countries have not.
Kalshi is available to users around the world under a global model that supports participation from over 140 countries. This expansion will create a single, unified liquidity pool for prediction markets, a structure that is unique to Kalshi,” the company said.
“While other platforms operate with fragmented, region-specific markets, Kalshi’s global exchange connects traders worldwide to the same set of events, deepening liquidity and price discovery across every market,” the company added.
“Prediction markets have always had worldwide relevance. Events don’t stop at borders, and neither does trading on them. Whether it’s elections, central bank decisions, sports, or climate, users across continents can trade directly on the outcomes that shape their world,” Kalshi declared.
Odds of US Sports Prediction Market Ban
State regulators, attorneys general, and lawmakers continue to seek ways to force the end of sports prediction markets in their jurisdictions. But with federal law preemption, bettors on Polymarket aren’t overly worried.
Will sports prediction markets be banned in any US state in 2025?” is one such yes/no contract on Polymarket. The trading suggests a chance of only 22%.
For the contract to resolve “yes,” the rules state that “sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market, whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant, are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide” by Dec. 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
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