Will Early Puck Drop Kill the Buzz for Olympic Hockey Bets?
Posted on: February 21, 2026, 06:44h.
Last updated on: February 21, 2026, 06:44h.
- Canada the slight betting favourite at Caesars Sportsbook
- Interview with Karry Shreeve, Head of Hockey, Caesars Sportsbook
- Sidney Crosby, working through a knee issue, is a game-time decision for Canada
The Olympic men’s gold medal hockey game in Milan between the USA and Canada starts at 8:10 a.m. EST tomorrow, not a start time that most North American sports fans are used to.
In Ontario, anyway, the province is all in. Premier Doug Ford says that bars and restaurants across Ontario are permitted to begin serving alcohol at 6 a.m. tomorrow.
The hype and stakes behind the showdown will eclipse any complaints people have with the early start time. This is probably the biggest hockey game in U.S. history, exactly 46 years after the Miracle on Ice Lake Placid gold medal win over the heavily favoured Russians. It will likely go down as one of the biggest in Canadian hockey history, rivaling the last game of the 1972 Summit Series against the Soviet national team, in Moscow, when Paul Henderson scored the winning goal for the ages. It will likely end up in the Top 10 of all time for hockey mad Canada.
Betting Interest
As was the case last winter in the 4 Nations Face-Off, where the Canadian all-stars beat the U.S. all-stars on a Connor McDavid goal in overtime, there’s also a big political backdrop to tomorrow’s game.
Comments over the past year by U.S. Donald Trump, specifically about making Canada the 51st state, plus a trade war set off by tariffs imposed by Trump, ignited an anti-Americanism in Canada that’s showing no signs of abating.
Casino.org caught up with Karry Shreeve, Head of Hockey at Caesars Sportsbook, to get a sense of what the team there is seeing on the betting front just 13 hours before puck drop for the big game.
Sports Betting: Early Start Time
When asked how betting volume looks for the game, Shreeve pointed to the impact with the early start time.
The only reason I could see this game take less money than the 4 Nations Final is simply the literal time of the game,” he said. “Given that the game will start at 8 a.m. (EST) Sunday, there just may not be quite the public steam to the buildup as say if the game started at noon or certainly early evening. Outside of that, I certainly expect we see higher volume than most NHL playoff games. Early money is on USA and that is to be fully expected given all the context.”
Hometown Bias
Canada has been the slight betting favourite throughout the day. At Caesars Sportsbook, Canada is -120, the USA is at +100. The puckline is Canada -1.5 (+230) and the U.S. +1.5 (-260), with Over 5.5 (+135) and Under 5.5 (-155).
How much of that line is just hometown bias versus real roster edges, like Canada’s forward depth – led by a three-headed monster at centre, with Connor McDavid, Nathan McKinnon, and possibly, Crosby?
“Hometown bias is playing a role for sure, but recency bias is also playing a big part right now. USA results look a bit better on paper the last two games, while Canada has needed a couple comebacks to get into this Final,” he said. “Most of the public has really tuned in over the last couple days and the love for USA because of it (including Women) is playing a major role in the current price.”
Canada’s Roster Depth
Where is public money flooding, and what’s the sharp action saying?
“More USA money although sharps are certainly going to take advantage of a price that hasn’t really been reflected in that same way throughout this tournament,” said Shreeve. “Coming into the Final Four, for example, we were mostly -135 Canada to win Gold, so that price has obviously become more advantageous.”
Prop betting is also big, specifically around players like McDavid and Team USA captain Auston Matthews. We asked Shreeve if any other players are seeing a surprising amount of action.
Eichel Is Seeing Lots of Betting Action
“Jack Eichel has received surprising attention throughout the tournament and so far, the same attention in this Final,” he said. “Dylan Larkin is also seeing some action mostly because of his price but certainly arguable there is value with him. On Canada’s side, Mitch Marner is also getting action. I’d like to think it’s Vegas Golden Knights love, but that would just be hometown bias on my end. Other than that, Matthews and McDavid lead the charge especially running up to when the games start and I’d expect this Final to be the same.”
The goaltending showdown – Team USA’s Connor Hellebuyck versus Team Canada’s Jordan Binnington – is also a betting focus, with the O/U at 5.5, and both lineups loaded with superstars.
Over/Under for the Big Game
“Anytime we get into “Game 7″ type situations, I always like to lean where history tells me I should, and that’s tight competitive games that strongly go Under 5.5,” said Shreeve. “Once again, the Women’s Final played into this with a tight 1-1 game finishing in OT. The offense for both squads is clearly loaded but the moment is as tense as it can get and that usually tends to tight, no room on the ice hockey.”
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