Sen. Blumenthal: Prediction Markets Turned ‘War Into Casino Game,’ Bill Would Restore States’ Rights
Posted on: March 13, 2026, 09:35h.
Last updated on: March 13, 2026, 09:35h.
- Federal legislation seeks to give states the right to determine what sort of prediction market trading is allowed
- The Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act would also increase the minimum prediction market trading age from 18 to 21
United States Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) is leading federal legislation that would prevent the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission from allowing prediction markets it regulates to skirt state gambling laws.
Along with US Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ), Blumenthal this week filed the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act. The bill would return regulatory authority over sports betting to the states, a power granted to them by a landmark 2018 US Supreme Court decision.
In recent months, the CFTC under the Trump administration has moved towards solidifying the right for prediction markets to offer trading on sports event contracts.
Numerous state lawmakers, attorneys general, and gaming regulators have argued that the prediction market sports contracts constitute sports betting. CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who President Donald Trump appointed to the role, says prediction markets are evolving and that their innovative offerings allow investors to use their knowledge to predict future outcomes for financial gain.
Federal Prediction Markets Bill
Blumenthal and Kim’s bill would strip the CFTC’s powers to preempt state gambling regulations.
“Nothing in this Act preempts or limits the authority of a State or an Indian Tribe to enact, adopt, promulgate, or enforce any law, rule, regulation, or other measure with respect to online prediction markets that is in addition to, or more stringent than, the requirements of this Act, including a law, rule, regulation, or other measure that prohibits an online prediction market from operating in the State or Tribal jurisdiction,” the text reads.
Prediction markets are facilitating sports trades in numerous states where sports betting is illegal, including in California and Texas. Despite sports betting being banned, Californians and Texans can hop on one of the many prediction markets catering to those states and make a trade on the outcome of tonight’s men’s college basketball games, whether Scottie Scheffler will win The Players Championship, and who will win the ATP Indian Wells Championship. The CFTC contends these are financial instruments — not gambling.
While the CFTC has always banned trading on the outcomes of war, the Democrats’ bill seeks to strip the CFTC of its powers to remove that stipulation.
Prediction markets have become a haven for insider trading, market manipulation, and underage gambling. These billion-dollar businesses are turning war into a casino game, and creating a market for national security leaks,” said Blumenthal.
“My measure puts guardrails on this out-of-control industry. It bans dangerous and unethical bets and protects consumers from fraud and other predatory practices,” Blumenthal added.
State Rights in Focus
Blumenthal and Kim’s Act would permanently prevent the CFTC from allowing prediction markets to offer any contract that is susceptible to manipulation, related to war, military action, or death, or violates state or federal law.
The provision would give states the right to determine what sort of trades prediction markets can offer.
Blumenthal and Kim also seek to raise the minimum age to use a prediction market from 18 to 21. Responsible gaming experts have reported an increase in outreach calls from younger people since prediction markets began offering sports trading in early 2025.
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