Will Prediction Markets Ever Become Legal in Canada?
Posted on: January 16, 2026, 04:44h.
Last updated on: January 16, 2026, 04:44h.
- Predictions market like Kalshi and Polymarket currently banned in Canada
- Ontario Securities Commission fined Polymarket last year
- Might be a path to market for prediction markets
With all the news and money movement around prediction markets in the U.S., dramatic growth now measured in the billions, a logical question for Canadians is how long before those platforms are legally allowed to operate in their country.
Monthly trading volume that was a modest $100 million in early 2024 surged to more than $13 billion by the end of 2025. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are now part of major exchanges, crypto wallets, used by financial media as a source of real-time probability data (see CNN’s deal with Kalshi).
Then there’s major sports leagues like the NHL announcing partnerships both with Kalshi and Polymarket, in October, a further boost, with more people and companies looking at prediction markets as legitimate.
Is it a gambling or financial product? The platforms feature binary wagers – wagers on a “yes” or “no”, or a higher/lower outcome. In sports betting the house sets the odds and the individual is betting against the house. In a prediction market, if the individual loses, they are losing to other individuals, not the house. The prediction market companies make their money off transaction fees.
Billion Dollar Market
Top Polymarket movers over the past 24 hours were “Will Trump and Machado not shake hands?” (90% no handshake), “Will Antonio Jose Seguro win the first round of the 2026 presidential election” (53% yes), and “TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026?” (56% yes).
As CBC detailed here, though, someone made a huge amount of money (over $400,000, on a $30,000 wager) betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the end of January, igniting debate again about the dangers of prediction markets mixed in with inside, privileged information.
In the U.S., prediction markets are governed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Banned in Canada
Binary wagers, like the ones offered on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, are banned in Canada.
The online sports betting market in Ontario continues to grow dramatically, if last month’s iGaming Ontario financial performance data is any indication. Total non-adjusted gross gaming revenue (NAGGR) set a record, at CAD $406.2 million, a big 10% jump from October. So Ontarians have embraced legal sports betting in a major way. Out of 48 licensed igaming operators in Ontario, 34 have sportsbook offerings.
But what about prediction markets sweeping into Canada in the future?
Room to Maneuver Legally?
As Matthew Burgoyne, a Partner with Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, and chair of Osler’s Digital Assets and Blockchain practice, explained to us:
“In December, 2017, Canadian securities regulators published Multilateral Instrument 91-102 Prohibition of Binary Options (MI 91-102),” he said via email. “MI 91-102 defines a binary option as a yes/no contract where payout is a fixed amount if a pre‑set condition is met and zero (or another fixed amount) if it is not, based on an underlying asset or event.
“Since most centralized crypto prediction markets provide for yes/no, fixed-payout event bets, they look and function like crypto-settled binary options, so offering them to retail Canadians may be captured by MI 91‑102’s binary options prohibition. While there is an exemption for contracts with a term of 30 days or more, it likely would not cover typical crypto prediction markets, which generally list short‑dated political and event contracts ranging from hours to a few weeks.”
OSC Fined Polymarket
The Ontario Securities Commission finalized a settlement with the companies behind crypto-based Polymarket last April, that included a two-year ban from Ontario’s capital markets and over $2o0,000 in penalties for breaching MI 91-102 by offering their product to Ontario investors between June 2020 and May 2023.
As CBC mentioned in their story, people outside Ontario can use VPNs to get around any restrictions and access platforms like Polymarket. There are clearly leaks in the dam.
Still, there is a path to market, from a legal perspective, Burgoyne told us.
Realistically, the path to market in Canada for a large centralized crypto prediction market would almost certainly involve the company applying to provincial securities regulators for an exemption from MI 91-102,” he said. “Canadian securities regulators are expressly empowered under the Instrument to grant exemptions subject to conditions and restrictions as may be imposed in the exemption.”
Path to Market
If that were to happen, would Canadians flock to prediction markets, like they are in the U.S.? Not everybody thinks so.
“I think it’s better to focus right now on encouraging more provinces to use their available tools against unlicensed operators, while also providing residents with protections like responsible gaming, anti-money laundering measures, and verification of funds and identity,” said Amanda Brewer, Senior Vice President of Policy and Communications, Canadian Gaming Association.
“If other regions follow Ontario’s example by offering a range of products including prop bets, we’re making solid progress. However, I don’t see much interest at the moment in broadening access to predictive markets, especially since many provinces are still working through their own grey market challenges.”
Plenty of Variety for Bettors
As a senior industry source told us, it’s likely prediction markets won’t catch on in Canada the way they have in the U.S., in large part because markets like Ontario haven’t set limits on the number of sports betting operators who have licenses to operate.
“In Ontario, they have 48 regulated operators,” the source said. “In the rest of the country, they have a gray market of who knows how many servicing the customer base with every vertical, casino sports poker, bingo. So there’s a little need for Canadians to explore these other options.
“My sense is this has become a big issue in the United States because they’ve made a number of poor policy decisions. First they cap the number of (OSB) suppliers at 10 or 12 or so. Then they require tethering to land based properties. Then in a number of cases, they allow for sports, but not casino.”
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