With Blue Jays’ Kazuma Okamoto Signing, Is MLB Free Agency Set To Take Off?
Posted on: January 4, 2026, 12:13h.
Last updated on: January 4, 2026, 09:59h.
- Blue Jays sign Japanese free agent slugger Kazuma Okamoto to $60 million deal
- Tucker, Bichette, Bregman some of the big names available in free agency
- Yankees still betting favourite in American League
The Toronto Blue Jays fired another shot across the bow of their American League competitors yesterday, announcing a four-year, $60 million deal with Japanese all-star slugger Kazuma Okamoto (along with a $5 million bonus), according to ESPN reporting.
The big question is how hungry teams are to spend big money on free agents with a potential work stoppage coming down the line. The collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1 2026, and the online chatter is the MLB owners are going to want a new system with a salary cap. Players will no doubt balk at that.
There are a lot of big name players still available on the free agent market. That hesitation so far this off-season is impacting player values, teams taking a slower, measured approach with players available on the market, waiting for those available to re-set their salary expectations downward.
The Blue Jays are an interesting situation. After taking the L.A. Dodgers to the seventh game of the World Series, losing the title literally by inches, on their home field no less, the Jays have had a taste of winning, and their owners, Rogers Communications, are spending money like a large market team – $337 million in future salaries committed so far this winter (Okamoto, plus pitchers Dylan Cease, 7 years x $210 million, Cody Ponce, 3 years x $30 million, and Tyler Rogers, 3 years x $37 million). And don’t forget pitcher Shane Bieber triggering his $16 million player option for 2026.
Blue Jays Setting the Pace in Free Agency
The facts on Okamoto, 29: Playing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball League since 2017 with the Yomiuri Giants, he has hit 248 home runs, a league best. That’s one more than Munetaka Murakami, who signed with the Chicago White Sox in December. Okamoto, a six-time NPB all-star, is a third baseman, who can also play first (he can also play the outfield). He missed half the season last year with an elbow issue, but he’s a legitimate power threat for the Jays, ranging from 27 to 41 home runs over those years with the Giants. Of note also were his batting averages the last three season with the Giants – .278, .280 and .327.
The World Series was hugely beneficial for the Blue Jays, beyond the playoff ticket money they generated. The seven-game series against the Dodgers was a big infomercial for the Blue Jays team and management, the organization’s immense financial resources, how they treat players and their families, the Rogers Centre facility itself, and an energetic fan base. Okamoto’s signing adds even more versatility to the Blue Jays’ lineup – complementing players like Addison Barger, who can shift from right field to third base, and Ernie Clement, who can move from third base to second base.
Free Agents on the Board
According to FanGraphs, Okamoto’s wRC+ (Weighted Run Created Plus, one of the best single metrics to measure hitters, accounting for context like the effects of hitter-friendly parks, or league-wide run environment) is projected to be 110 for 2026, which puts him in the good or solid contributor category (FanGraph also projects 19 HRs, 59 RBIs).
The Blue Jays might not be done with free agency, though. ESPN said Okamoto’s salary will be $7 million this year, $16 million per year for the last three years of the contract. Veteran MLB reporter Buster Onley told Canada’s TSN network that according to his sources the Blue Jays are top of the list for either Tucker or Bichette. Olney made those comments before news broke about Okamoto.
Bichette makes sense, especially since he has indicated a willingness to shift to second base, creating a 3B Okamoto, SS Andres Gimenez, 2B Bichette (spelling Gimenez on occasion at SS), 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Ernie Clement (3B and 2B) as a super sub, scenario in play.
What Do Betting Lines Look Like?
Major names are still out there in the free agent market:
- OF Kyle Tucker (Chicago Cubs in 2025, .266 AVG, 22 HRs, 73 RBIs, .841 OPS)
- SS Bichette (Blue Jays 2025, .311, 18, 94, .840)
- 3B Alex Bregman (Boston Red Sox in 2025, .273, 18, 62, .821)
- OF Cody Bellinger (New York Yankees in 2025, .272, 29, 98, .813)
- SP Framber Valdez (Houston Astros in 2025, 13-11, 3.66 ERA, 187K, 1.24 WHIP)
Somewhat surprisingly, despite a quiet off-season so far, measured against the Blue Jays’ four player signings, the New York Yankees remain betting favourites for the American League title (keep in mind Gerrit Cole is returning after missing a year due to elbow reconstruction surgery): Yankees +310, Seattle Mariners +550, Houston Astros +550, Boston Red Sox +700, Blue Jays +750, Baltimore Orioles +1100, at DraftKings.
At FanDuel, it’s Yankees +360, Mariners +550, Astros +650, Red Sox +650, Jays +700, Orioles +1000.
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